J1 League· Regular Season - 10· Mercari Stadium
Kashima
V-varen Nagasaki17 Oct
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Kashima to win
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-0
Fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
2.2 - 0.7
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Match probabilities
More Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Kashima +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 97% | 1.03 | - |
| 1XKashima or Draw | 85% | 1.18 | 1.13 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.36 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.80 | 1.74 |
| AH2 +1.5V-varen Nagasaki +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 54% | 1.84 | 1.56 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 52% | 1.91 | 1.79 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 48% | 2.10 | 2.00 |
| AH1 -1.5Kashima -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 46% | 2.19 | 2.46 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | 2.12 |
| X2V-varen Nagasaki or Draw | 41% | 2.46 | 2.51 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.90 | 2.70 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | 4.50 |
| 2V-varen Nagasaki to win | 15% | 6.63 | 6.00 |
| AH2 -1.5V-varen Nagasaki -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 3% | 31.50 | - |
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 | - | - | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.41 | 6.00 | 1.74 | 2.12 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.50 | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.10 | 5.75 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.30 | 5.85 | 1.70 | 2.08 | 1.79 | 1.89 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 | 1.67 | 2.03 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.32 | 5.98 | 1.76 | 2.09 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.90 | 5.32 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.15 | 5.90 | 1.70 | 2.12 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki preview & analysis
Match preview
Kashima host V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League (Regular Season - 10) at Mercari Stadium on Saturday, 17 October 2026, with kick-off at 06:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Kashima arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Công An Nhân Dân 1-0 away. They're 6th in the table with 16 points from 9 games. V-varen Nagasaki arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Most recently they drew with JEF United Chiba 1-1 away. They're 14th in the table with 9 points from 9 games.
Head to head
In the last 5 meetings between these sides, Kashima have won 5, V-varen Nagasaki have won 0 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.6 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Kashima favourites: Kashima 59%, draw 26%, V-varen Nagasaki 15%. We expect around 2.9 goals (2.2 - 0.7 in expected goals), with 55% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Kashima have the stronger profile here and home advantage tips it further their way. Our pick is Kashima to win at 1.54, which our model rates at a 59% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Kashima 2-0 V-varen Nagasaki.
Recent form
Kashima- 13 OctACông An Nhân Dân1-0
- 9 OctHGamba Osaka2-0
- 23 SeptHVentforet Kofu3-1
- 19 SeptAKawasaki Frontale3-3
- 15 SeptHNewcastle Jets7-1
V-varen Nagasaki- 11 OctAJEF United Chiba1-1
- 7 OctAShimizu S-pulse1-2
- 29 SeptAGainare Tottori0-2
- 19 SeptHCerezo Osaka1-1
- 12 SeptHNagoya Grampus2-0
Head to head
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 |  FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Urawa | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 |  Kyoto Sanga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki: FAQ
What is the Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction?
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Our tip is Kashima to win at odds of 1.54. Our predicted score is Kashima 2-0 V-varen Nagasaki.
Who is the favourite to win Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
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Kashima are favourites. Our model gives Kashima a 59% chance of winning, V-varen Nagasaki 15%, and the draw 26%.
Will both teams score in Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
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We rate both teams to score at 52%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki kick off?
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Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki kicks off at 06:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima.
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