Our track record

Every main OhMyTip tip is locked before kick-off. Once published, the selection and its recorded odds become part of the public track record. This creates a clear record of what was recommended before the match began, rather than a list reconstructed after the result is known.

For each match, OhMyTip collects prices from more than 10 bookmakers. We remove the bookmaker margin from those prices and average the adjusted probabilities to establish a market consensus. This provides a reference point based on a broad range of available market prices.

The final probability combines 85% market consensus with 15% statistical prediction. The statistical component considers factors such as recent form, goals and head-to-head records. For goal-related markets, including over/under, both teams to score (BTTS), correct score and handicaps, a Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals.

The result is a probability-based approach that combines market information with statistical analysis. It does not remove uncertainty from football, and a high estimated probability should never be interpreted as a guarantee that a selection will win.

After a match finishes, each published tip is graded automatically according to the outcome of its selection. A winning selection is marked as a win, while a selection that does not meet its stated conditions is recorded as a loss. Markets with specific settlement rules, such as handicaps or correct scores, must be judged against those conditions.

The grading process connects each pre-match tip to its final outcome. The public results page lets readers review the recorded selections and see how they performed, rather than relying on claims about past accuracy.

Some markets can have a push or void outcome under their settlement rules. Where applicable, these outcomes should be distinguished from wins and losses because they can affect how stakes and performance figures are calculated. Always read the displayed status and any accompanying explanation.

A trustworthy track record must include unsuccessful predictions as well as successful ones. Removing losing tips would create a misleading picture of performance and prevent readers from assessing the method fairly.

OhMyTip locks tips before kick-off and grades them publicly after full time. Keeping the complete record makes it possible to compare the original selections with the actual results, including periods when predictions perform poorly.

Losses are a normal part of probabilistic forecasting. Even a well-supported selection can fail because football matches contain unpredictable events, including missed chances, defensive errors, penalties and red cards. The purpose of a track record is to show how a method performs across results, not to suggest that every individual prediction is correct.

Hit rate is the percentage of settled tips that win. If 60 out of 100 settled tips win, the hit rate is 60%. Hit rate describes accuracy, but it does not tell you whether those wins were profitable. A strategy with short odds can have a high hit rate and still lose money if its losing selections cost more than its wins return.

Profit in units measures the net result using a standardised stake. With level 1-unit stakes, a winning tip at decimal odds of 2.50 returns 2.50 units in total, including the original stake, so its net profit is 1.50 units. A losing tip loses 1 unit. Across a series of settled bets, add all net wins and losses to calculate total profit in units.

Return on investment (ROI) expresses net profit as a percentage of the total amount staked. For a simple example, suppose 10 tips are settled at level 1-unit stakes. Six win at decimal odds of 2.00 and four lose. The six wins generate 6 units in net profit, while the four losses cost 4 units, giving a net profit of 2 units. Total stakes are 10 units, so ROI is 2 divided by 10, multiplied by 100, which equals 20%.

Average odds are the arithmetic average of the decimal odds recorded for the tips in the group being measured. They help describe the typical price of a selection, but they do not show how often the selections win or whether the overall results are profitable. Read average odds alongside hit rate, profit and ROI for a more complete picture.

Variance describes the natural fluctuations in results over time. A series of losses can occur even when selections have positive expected value, just as a short run of wins can make an unsuccessful approach look better than it really is. Neither streak alone proves that a method is reliable or ineffective.

Sample size matters because a small number of results can be heavily influenced by a few matches. Ten settled tips provide much less evidence about long-term performance than hundreds of tips across different fixtures and odds ranges. As more results accumulate, it becomes easier to assess whether observed performance is consistent or could plausibly reflect short-term variation.

No sample size guarantees future success. Football conditions change, odds vary, and the quality of predictions can differ between markets and competitions. Review longer periods, consider the range of odds involved, and avoid drawing firm conclusions from a brief winning or losing streak.

Start with the selection itself and identify the market, match and odds. Check the recorded status to establish whether the tip won, lost or received another settlement outcome. Confirm that the result corresponds to the selection's actual conditions rather than judging it only by the match score.

Next, look at the number of settled tips behind the performance figures. A hit rate or ROI without its sample size provides incomplete information. Compare the same types of markets and similar reporting periods where possible, and check whether the displayed figures cover all tips or a specific category.

Finally, consider the metrics together. Hit rate measures winning frequency, profit in units shows the net gain or loss, ROI measures that result against the amount staked, and average odds describe the typical price. No single figure tells the whole story, but together they offer a more balanced view of the track record.

The results page is intended to support transparent evaluation, not to promise future returns. Use the full record, account for variance, and remember that even a method with a positive historical ROI can lose money in the future.