How our model works

Bookmaker odds are the most efficient public forecast of a football match. For every fixture we collect prices from 10+ bookmakers across the match result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets.

Each bookmaker builds a margin into its prices, so we remove that margin first and then average the results. This gives a fair, consensus probability for every outcome.

We blend that consensus with an independent statistical model built from recent form, attacking and defensive strength, goals scored and conceded, and head-to-head history.

When markets haven't opened yet, the statistical model carries more weight, and the prediction updates automatically once odds are available.

From the total-goals market and the 1X2 split we work out each team's expected goals. A Poisson distribution then gives us the probability of every scoreline. That powers our over/under, BTTS and correct score predictions.

Every match has ten candidate selections. We keep those priced between 1.45 and 3.40, then pick the one with the highest probability, nudged slightly toward selections where the best available odds beat our fair price.

Confidence is High at 64%+, Medium at 53-64% and Low below that.

Each main tip is logged while the match is upcoming and locked at kick-off. After full time it's graded automatically and added to our public results page, wins and losses alike.