Venezia
Napoli17 Oct
Venezia vs Napoli Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Napoli to win
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
0-2
Fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.0
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Expert analysis
Napoli to win at 1.73
Analysis by Diego Ferraz
LaLiga, Serie A & South America ·
Venezia are winless in five games with five straight defeats and fourteen goals conceded. Napoli are 2-1-2 in five games with only five goals conceded. The model gives Napoli 55 percent to win making this the strong probability pick.
Form & Context
Venezia have played five games. Zero wins. Zero draws. Five losses. Scored six goals. Conceded fourteen goals. Over 2.5 goals in four games. BTTS in four games. According to the table they are 20th with zero points from six games.
Napoli have played five games. Two wins. One draw. Two losses. Scored six goals. Conceded five goals. Over 2.5 goals in two games. BTTS in two games. They sit eighth on the table with ten points from six games.
The head to head shows the last meeting was Venezia 0-0 Napoli on 2025-03-16. Prior to that Napoli won 1-0 on 2024-12-29. Before that Venezia lost 0-2 on 2022-02-06. Earlier Napoli won 2-0 on 2021-08-22. Venezia have a poor shape after the losing run with no points. Napoli have better momentum from their two wins in the last five games.
Team News (provisional)
With days until kickoff at two team news is provisional and line-ups are not predicted.
Venezia appointed Davide Nicola as head coach on 14 October 2026 replacing Giovanni Stroppa after six consecutive Serie A defeats. This is his debut against Napoli. According to Reuters reports Venezia are still seeking their first points of the league campaign.
Injuries and availability known so far include A. Adorante missing with hernia, A. Bella-Kotchap with thigh injury, G. Busio with thigh injury, B. Franjic with shoulder injury, P. Mazzocchi with injury, M. Sverko with hip injury and T. Correia questionable with injury. According to Sky Sport's 14 October availability report several players are unavailable. La Gazzetta dello Sport projected list includes some of those listed as out so availability is unclear. No suspensions listed.
Napoli lost 3-1 to Villarreal in the Champions League on 13 October. The squad returned to work on 14 October with starters doing recovery training. The short turnaround could influence selection.
Injuries known include Alisson Santos missing with muscle injury, F. Anguissa with groin injury, A. Buongiorno with knee injury, C. Favasuli with thigh injury, M. Olivera with groin injury and A. Vergara with calf injury. According to SSC Napoli training report Alisson Santos, Anguissa and Olivera trained ahead of the match improving options. No suspensions listed in previews.
Key Matchup
Venezia's defence has been leaky conceding fourteen goals in five games. Their shape is poor after the run of defeats. Momentum is with Napoli who have two wins in the last five games including against Bologna. Key duels will centre on midfield control and defensive shape given the form. According to the research the recent head to head has seen low scoring games but Napoli have the better record overall. Venezia under new coach are still winless. Napoli travel with solid defensive numbers and better recent results.
The Numbers
Model probabilities show home 17 percent draw 28 percent away 55 percent. Expected goals are home 0.85 away 2.10. Most likely score 0-2. Over 2.5 goals probability 57 percent. BTTS 56 percent. Form totals match exactly as given. According to the table and research the numbers back Napoli as the clear favourite.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Venezia winless in five games with fourteen goals conceded
- 2Napoli are 2-1-2 in five games and conceded only five goals
- 355 percent model probability for Napoli to win
Verdict
Napoli to win at 1.73. The main risk is Napoli's midweek Champions League trip on short turnaround potentially leading to rotation.
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Venezia vs Napoli tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Napoli +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 96% | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| X2Napoli or Draw | 83% | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.40 |
| AH1 +1.5Venezia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 59% | 1.70 | 1.46 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | 1.77 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 55% | 1.82 | 1.73 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 45% | 2.22 | 2.10 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | 2.22 |
| 1XVenezia or Draw | 45% | 2.23 | 2.22 |
| AH2 -1.5Napoli -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 41% | 2.44 | 3.02 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.92 | 2.66 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | 4.22 |
| 1Venezia to win | 17% | 5.84 | 4.89 |
| AH1 -1.5Venezia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 4% | 22.91 | 9.40 |
Venezia vs Napoli odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.80 | 1.67 | - | - | 1.73 | 2.05 |
| 1xBet | 4.89 | 4.22 | 1.74 | 1.77 | 2.22 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.69 | 1.71 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 4.66 | 4.16 | 1.72 | 1.76 | 2.13 | - | - |
Recent form
- 12 OctAAtalanta1-3
- 19 SeptHLazio0-2
- 11 SeptHFiorentina2-4
- 6 SeptAFrosinone2-3
- 2 SeptAUdinese1-2
- 13 OctAVillarreal1-3
- 10 OctHFrosinone3-0
- 20 SeptAFiorentina1-1
- 13 SeptHBologna1-0
- 9 SeptHArsenal0-1
Head to head
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 | |
| 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 | |
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 | |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 | |
| 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 | |
| 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 | |
| 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 | |
| 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 | |
| 10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 | |
| 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 | |
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 | |
| 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | |
| 17 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | |
| 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | |
| 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 | |
| 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Venezia vs Napoli: FAQ
What is the Venezia vs Napoli prediction?
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Our tip is Napoli to win at odds of 1.74. Our predicted score is Venezia 0-2 Napoli.
Who is the favourite to win Venezia vs Napoli?
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Napoli are favourites. Our model gives Venezia a 17% chance of winning, Napoli 55%, and the draw 28%.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Napoli?
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We rate both teams to score at 55%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Venezia vs Napoli kick off?
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Venezia vs Napoli kicks off at 13:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice.
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