Liga MX· Apertura - 11· Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANL
Toluca3-2
FT
Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Kick-off
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
More Tigres UANL vs Toluca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| AH1 +1.5Tigres UANL +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 76% | 1.32 | 1.15 |
| X2Toluca or Draw | 71% | 1.41 | 1.37 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.38 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 59% | 1.69 | 1.55 |
| 1XTigres UANL or Draw | 59% | 1.70 | 1.57 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 1.68 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | 2.09 |
| 2Toluca to win | 41% | 2.43 | 2.41 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 41% | 2.46 | 2.30 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.91 | 2.62 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | 3.55 |
| 1Tigres UANL to win | 29% | 3.43 | 2.85 |
| AH2 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 24% | 4.13 | 4.30 |
| AH1 -1.5Tigres UANL -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.05 | 5.80 |
Tigres UANL vs Toluca odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.25 | - | - | 1.53 | 2.30 |
| 1xBet | 2.85 | 3.44 | 2.28 | 1.68 | 2.09 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.55 | 2.41 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.44 | 2.26 | 1.68 | 2.09 | 1.55 | 2.26 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 3.04 | 3.57 | 2.36 | 1.72 | 2.20 | - | - |
| SBO | 2.63 | 3.11 | 2.32 | 1.66 | 2.21 | - | - |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.50 | 2.32 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
Tigres UANL vs Toluca preview & analysis
Match preview
Tigres UANL host Toluca in the Liga MX (Apertura - 11) at Estadio Universitario on Saturday, 10 October 2026, with kick-off at 03:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Tigres UANL arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 3. Most recently they beat Puebla 1-0 at home. They're 13th in the table with 13 points from 11 games. Toluca arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Most recently they lost to Monterrey 1-2 away. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Tigres UANL have won 2, Toluca have won 2 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 2.7 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Tigres UANL 29%, draw 30%, Toluca 41%. We expect around 2.9 goals (1.3 - 1.6 in expected goals), with 56% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Tigres UANL- 27 SeptHPuebla1-0
- 19 SeptAFC Juarez0-2
- 13 SeptAMonterrey0-0
- 6 SeptHNecaxa1-1
- 30 AugASantos Laguna0-0
Toluca- 4 OctAMonterrey1-2
- 26 SeptACruz Azul3-3
- 21 SeptHSantos Laguna2-3
- 16 SeptAPuebla1-0
- 13 SeptHAtlas5-2
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Tigres UANL vs Toluca: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
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Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Tigres UANL a 29% chance of winning, Toluca 41%, and the draw 30%.
Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
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We rate both teams to score at 59%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Tigres UANL vs Toluca kick off?
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Tigres UANL vs Toluca kicks off at 03:00 UTC on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Estadio Universitario, Monterey.
