Championship· Regular Season - 19· Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough
Derby5 Dec
Middlesbrough vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 5 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
2.2 - 1.2
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Middlesbrough vs Derby tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Middlesbrough +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XMiddlesbrough or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Derby +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 63% | 1.58 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 63% | 1.60 | - |
| X2Derby or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | - |
| 1Middlesbrough to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 37% | 2.67 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Middlesbrough -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 37% | 2.73 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.94 | - |
| 2Derby to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Derby -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.20 | - |
Middlesbrough vs Derby preview & analysis
Match preview
Middlesbrough host Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 19) at Riverside Stadium on Saturday, 5 December 2026, with kick-off at 12:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Middlesbrough arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Most recently they beat Stoke City 3-2 away. They're 2nd in the table with 21 points from 10 games. Derby are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to QPR 1-4 away. They're 23rd in the table with 6 points from 10 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Middlesbrough have won 3, Derby have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 1.8 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Middlesbrough narrow favourites: Middlesbrough 44%, draw 38%, Derby 18%. We expect around 3.4 goals (2.2 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 66% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 66% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby.
Recent form
Middlesbrough- 13 OctAStoke City3-2
- 10 OctHWolves1-0
- 19 SeptABirmingham2-2
- 15 SeptHMillwall2-2
- 12 SeptHNorwich4-3
Derby- 14 OctAQPR1-4
- 10 OctHWrexham1-1
- 19 SeptABurnley1-1
- 12 SeptHBirmingham1-2
- 9 SeptHWest Brom0-1
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Middlesbrough vs Derby: FAQ
What is the Middlesbrough vs Derby prediction?
+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby.
Who is the favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Derby?
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Middlesbrough are favourites. Our model gives Middlesbrough a 44% chance of winning, Derby 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
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We rate both teams to score at 63%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Middlesbrough vs Derby kick off?
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Middlesbrough vs Derby kicks off at 12:30 UTC on Saturday, 5 December 2026 at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough.
