Bundesliga· Regular Season - 12· Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 055 Dec
RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 5 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
2.4 - 1.4
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5RB Leipzig +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XRB Leipzig or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | - |
| AH2 +1.5FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| X2FSV Mainz 05 or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 1RB Leipzig to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| AH1 -1.5RB Leipzig -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.13 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 2FSV Mainz 05 to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5FSV Mainz 05 -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.74 | - |
RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 preview & analysis
Match preview
RB Leipzig host FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 12) at Red Bull Arena on Saturday, 5 December 2026, with kick-off at 14:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
RB Leipzig arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Most recently they beat PSV Eindhoven 1-0 at home. They're 5th in the table with 9 points from 5 games. FSV Mainz 05 arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Most recently they lost to Bayer Leverkusen 3-4 at home. They're 8th in the table with 7 points from 5 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, RB Leipzig have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 1.8 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes RB Leipzig narrow favourites: RB Leipzig 44%, draw 38%, FSV Mainz 05 18%. We expect around 3.8 goals (2.4 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score, which our model rates at a 68% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is RB Leipzig 2-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Recent form
RB Leipzig- 13 OctHPSV Eindhoven1-0
- 10 OctHEintracht Frankfurt6-0
- 20 SeptABayer Leverkusen0-2
- 13 SeptHHamburger SV5-0
- 10 SeptAComo1-4
FSV Mainz 05- 10 OctHBayer Leverkusen3-4
- 3 OctAWaldhof Mannheim3-0
- 19 SeptABorussia Mönchengladbach4-3
- 12 SeptHEintracht Frankfurt1-3
- 6 SeptAHamburger SV5-0
Head to head
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 |  FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05: FAQ
What is the RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score. Our predicted score is RB Leipzig 2-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who is the favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
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RB Leipzig are favourites. Our model gives RB Leipzig a 44% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
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RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 kicks off at 14:30 UTC on Saturday, 5 December 2026 at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.
