EFL Cup· Round of 16· Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth
Aston Villa28 Oct
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.3
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Match probabilities
More Bournemouth vs Aston Villa tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Bournemouth +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 85% | 1.17 | 1.13 |
| AH2 +1.5Aston Villa +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 80% | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| 1XBournemouth or Draw | 67% | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| X2Aston Villa or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 2.00 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 43% | 2.31 | 2.15 |
| 1Bournemouth to win | 39% | 2.55 | 2.42 |
| 2Aston Villa to win | 33% | 3.01 | 2.80 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.15 | 2.90 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | 3.70 |
| AH1 -1.5Bournemouth -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 20% | 4.94 | 4.50 |
| AH2 -1.5Aston Villa -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 15% | 6.88 | 5.40 |
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.64 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.88 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa preview & analysis
Match preview
Bournemouth host Aston Villa in the EFL Cup (Round of 16) at Vitality Stadium on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Bournemouth arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to Chelsea 1-5 away. Aston Villa arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 6. Most recently they beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 at home.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Bournemouth have won 0, Aston Villa have won 3 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 2.8 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Bournemouth narrow favourites: Bournemouth 39%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 33%. We expect around 2.8 goals (1.5 - 1.3 in expected goals), with 53% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score at 1.64, which our model rates at a 57% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Bournemouth 1-0 Aston Villa.
Recent form
Bournemouth- 10 OctAChelsea1-5
- 20 SeptHLiverpool0-1
- 17 SeptAReal Sociedad2-1
- 12 SeptHBrentford2-2
- 8 SeptHLincoln4-0
Aston Villa- 14 OctHFenerbahçe6-0
- 10 OctHBrentford2-2
- 2 OctASevilla3-1
- 19 SeptATottenham3-2
- 16 SeptACoventry3-1
Head to head
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: FAQ
What is the Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.64. Our predicted score is Bournemouth 1-0 Aston Villa.
Who is the favourite to win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
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Bournemouth are favourites. Our model gives Bournemouth a 39% chance of winning, Aston Villa 33%, and the draw 28%.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
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We rate both teams to score at 57%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kick off?
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Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.
