Brasileirão· Regular Season - 28· Arena da Baixada
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia2-1
FT
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 20 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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More Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Bahia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | - |
| X2Bahia or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 71% | 1.42 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Atletico Paranaense +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 67% | 1.49 | - |
| 1XAtletico Paranaense or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 2Bahia to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Bahia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 33% | 3.06 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 29% | 3.39 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 1Atletico Paranaense to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Atletico Paranaense -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.24 | - |
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia preview & analysis
Match preview
Atletico Paranaense host Bahia in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 28) at Arena da Baixada on Sunday, 20 September 2026, with kick-off at 22:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Atletico Paranaense arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Most recently they drew with Coritiba 3-3 away. They're 3rd in the table with 53 points from 30 games. Bahia arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 3 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Remo 2-1 at home. They're 5th in the table with 49 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Bahia have won 2 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 2.7 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Bahia narrow favourites: Atletico Paranaense 23%, draw 38%, Bahia 39%. We expect around 3.8 goals (1.6 - 2.2 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 71% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Atletico Paranaense- 12 SeptACoritiba3-3
- 6 SeptACruzeiro1-3
- 30 AugHFluminense3-3
Bahia- 15 SeptHRemo2-1
- 5 SeptARB Bragantino3-2
- 30 AugHInternacional3-2
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
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Bahia are favourites. Our model gives Atletico Paranaense a 23% chance of winning, Bahia 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
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We rate both teams to score at 71%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia kick off?
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Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia kicks off at 22:30 UTC on Sunday, 20 September 2026 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.
