La Liga· Regular Season - 8· Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Atletico Madrid1-2
FT
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
More Alaves vs Atletico Madrid tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Atletico Madrid +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 94% | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| X2Atletico Madrid or Draw | 80% | 1.25 | 1.22 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| AH1 +1.5Alaves +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 66% | 1.51 | 1.34 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 52% | 1.92 | 1.82 |
| 2Atletico Madrid to win | 51% | 1.95 | 1.82 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | 1.80 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 | 2.08 |
| 1XAlaves or Draw | 49% | 2.05 | 1.98 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 48% | 2.08 | 2.00 |
| AH2 -1.5Atletico Madrid -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 34% | 2.97 | 3.26 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.46 | 3.30 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.75 |
| 1Alaves to win | 20% | 5.05 | 4.39 |
| AH1 -1.5Alaves -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 6% | 17.68 | - |
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.75 | - | - | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 4.39 | 3.75 | 1.82 | 2.08 | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.70 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 3.74 | 1.81 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.87 |
| BetVictor | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 4.64 | 3.71 | 1.83 | 2.03 | 1.88 | - | - |
| SBO | 4.08 | 3.50 | 1.84 | 1.99 | 1.91 | - | - |
| Betano | 4.55 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid preview & analysis
Match preview
Alaves host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga (Regular Season - 8) at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Saturday, 10 October 2026, with kick-off at 14:15 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Alaves arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Most recently they drew with Athletic Club 0-0 away. They're 7th in the table with 11 points from 8 games. Atletico Madrid arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 3. Most recently they beat Real Madrid 2-1 at home. They're 2nd in the table with 19 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Alaves have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 3 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 1.8 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Atletico Madrid favourites: Alaves 20%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 51%. We expect around 2.6 goals (0.9 - 1.8 in expected goals), with 49% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Alaves- 19 SeptAAthletic Club0-0
- 15 SeptHValencia0-1
- 12 SeptARacing Santander1-2
- 6 SeptHOsasuna5-2
- 28 AugHVillarreal1-0
Atletico Madrid- 20 SeptHReal Madrid2-1
- 16 SeptHOsasuna4-0
- 13 SeptAReal Sociedad3-0
- 9 SeptALiverpool1-2
Head to head
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
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Atletico Madrid are favourites. Our model gives Alaves a 20% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 51%, and the draw 29%.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
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We rate both teams to score at 52%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kicks off at 14:15 UTC on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
