J1 League· Regular Season - 11· Peace Stadium
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima21 Oct
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.1 - 2.1
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Match probabilities
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More V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Sanfrecce Hiroshima +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| X2Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw | 83% | 1.20 | - |
| AH1 +1.5V-varen Nagasaki +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 65% | 1.54 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 60% | 1.68 | - |
| 1XV-varen Nagasaki or Draw | 58% | 1.74 | - |
| 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 40% | 2.47 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.63 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 35% | 2.84 | - |
| 1V-varen Nagasaki to win | 17% | 5.95 | - |
| AH1 -1.5V-varen Nagasaki -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.61 | - |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima preview & analysis
Match preview
V-varen Nagasaki host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League (Regular Season - 11) at Peace Stadium on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, with kick-off at 10:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
V-varen Nagasaki arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Most recently they drew with JEF United Chiba 1-1 away. They're 14th in the table with 9 points from 9 games. Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive in superb form, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 0. Most recently they beat Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 away. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 9 games.
Head to head
In the last 4 meetings between these sides, V-varen Nagasaki have won 0, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 4 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima narrow favourites: V-varen Nagasaki 17%, draw 41%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 42%. We expect around 3.2 goals (1.1 - 2.1 in expected goals), with 62% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 62% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
Recent form
V-varen Nagasaki- 11 OctAJEF United Chiba1-1
- 7 OctAShimizu S-pulse1-2
- 29 SeptAGainare Tottori0-2
- 19 SeptHCerezo Osaka1-1
- 12 SeptHNagoya Grampus2-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima- 14 OctAMatsumoto Yamaga1-0
- 11 OctATokyo Verdy2-0
- 7 OctHIwaki4-0
- 29 SeptATochigi City2-0
- 19 SeptAAvispa Fukuoka1-0
Head to head
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 |  FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Urawa | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 |  Kyoto Sanga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: FAQ
What is the V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
Who is the favourite to win V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima are favourites. Our model gives V-varen Nagasaki a 17% chance of winning, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 42%, and the draw 41%.
Will both teams score in V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
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We rate both teams to score at 60%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima kick off?
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V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima kicks off at 10:00 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at Peace Stadium, Nagasaki.
