J1 League· Regular Season - 11· Toyota Stadium
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka21 Oct
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
0-1
Fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.0 - 1.4
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Cerezo Osaka +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.10 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | - |
| X2Cerezo Osaka or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Nagoya Grampus +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| 1XNagoya Grampus or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.32 | - |
| 2Cerezo Osaka to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Cerezo Osaka -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 23% | 4.36 | - |
| 1Nagoya Grampus to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.52 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Nagoya Grampus -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 10.71 | - |
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka preview & analysis
Match preview
Nagoya Grampus host Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League (Regular Season - 11) at Toyota Stadium on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, with kick-off at 10:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Nagoya Grampus arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Most recently they drew with Fagiano Okayama 3-3 at home. They're 15th in the table with 9 points from 9 games. Cerezo Osaka arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Most recently they beat Gainare Tottori 3-2 away. They're 12th in the table with 12 points from 9 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Nagoya Grampus have won 3, Cerezo Osaka have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 3.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Cerezo Osaka narrow favourites: Nagoya Grampus 23%, draw 38%, Cerezo Osaka 39%. We expect around 2.4 goals (1.0 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 43% for over 2.5 and 47% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 57% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Cerezo Osaka.
Recent form
Nagoya Grampus- 14 OctHFagiano Okayama3-3
- 11 OctAKawasaki Frontale2-1
- 29 SeptAKitakyushu3-1
- 19 SeptAFC Tokyo0-1
- 12 SeptAV-varen Nagasaki0-2
Cerezo Osaka- 14 OctAGainare Tottori3-2
- 10 OctHYokohama F. Marinos0-0
- 7 OctHKagoshima United2-0
- 29 SeptAFujieda MYFC2-1
- 19 SeptAV-varen Nagasaki1-1
Head to head
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 |  FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Urawa | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 |  Kyoto Sanga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: FAQ
What is the Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Cerezo Osaka.
Who is the favourite to win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
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Cerezo Osaka are favourites. Our model gives Nagoya Grampus a 23% chance of winning, Cerezo Osaka 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
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We rate both teams to score at 47%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka kick off?
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Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka kicks off at 10:00 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Toyota City.
