Brasileirão· Regular Season - 30· Morumbi
Sao Paulo
Vitoria2-1
FT
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Match probabilities
More Sao Paulo vs Vitoria tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Sao Paulo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.05 | - |
| 1XSao Paulo or Draw | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| AH2 +1.5Vitoria +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 66% | 1.52 | 1.38 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | 1.66 |
| 1Sao Paulo to win | 53% | 1.88 | 1.73 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 52% | 1.91 | 1.86 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 48% | 2.10 | 1.95 |
| X2Vitoria or Draw | 47% | 2.13 | 2.11 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | 2.29 |
| AH1 -1.5Sao Paulo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 34% | 2.91 | 3.04 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | 3.70 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.08 | 3.96 |
| 2Vitoria to win | 17% | 5.82 | 5.57 |
| AH2 -1.5Vitoria -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 22.13 | - |
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.80 | - | - | 1.95 | 1.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.55 | 5.57 | 2.29 | 1.66 | 1.94 | 1.86 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.70 | 5.40 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.40 | 5.25 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.58 | 5.10 | 2.05 | 1.72 | 1.97 | 1.73 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.30 | 4.75 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.54 | 5.35 | 2.20 | 1.71 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.72 | 3.33 | 4.45 | 2.13 | 1.72 | - | - |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.55 | 5.40 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria preview & analysis
Match preview
Sao Paulo host Vitoria in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 30) at Morumbi on Sunday, 11 October 2026, with kick-off at 00:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Sao Paulo are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 0-2 away. They're 10th in the table with 39 points from 30 games. Vitoria arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Most recently they beat Chapecoense-sc 4-0 at home. They're 12th in the table with 36 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Sao Paulo have won 4, Vitoria have won 2 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 2.2 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Sao Paulo favourites: Sao Paulo 53%, draw 30%, Vitoria 17%. We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 - 0.7 in expected goals), with 45% for over 2.5 and 48% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Sao Paulo- 8 OctACruzeiro0-2
- 3 OctHSantos1-2
- 20 SeptHInternacional1-0
- 16 SeptHBoca Juniors1-1
- 12 SeptAPalmeiras0-2
Vitoria- 8 OctHChapecoense-sc4-0
- 20 SeptHCruzeiro1-3
- 13 SeptAMirassol2-2
- 8 SeptHGremio1-0
- 3 SeptHVasco DA Gama0-2
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
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Sao Paulo are favourites. Our model gives Sao Paulo a 53% chance of winning, Vitoria 17%, and the draw 30%.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
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We rate both teams to score at 48%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Sao Paulo vs Vitoria kick off?
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Sao Paulo vs Vitoria kicks off at 00:00 UTC on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Morumbi, Sao Paulo.
