Brasileirão· Regular Season - 31· Morumbi
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama18 Oct
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Vasco DA Gama or Draw
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
1.4 - 1.1
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Expert analysis
Vasco Shape Delivers Value Bet
Analysis by Diego Ferraz
LaLiga, Serie A & South America ·
Vasco are in excellent form with only one defeat in five games. Sao Paulo face injury problems and the value bet is on Vasco or draw at 1.68.
Form & Context
Vasco bring superior recent form and defensive solidity to this Serie A clash.
- Vasco record: 4 wins 1 draw 0 losses in 5 games, 10 goals scored, 1 conceded
- Sao Paulo: 2 wins 1 draw 2 losses, 5 goals scored, 6 conceded
- Over 2.5 goals in 2 games for each side
- Vasco in 14th place with 35 points from 29 matches
- Sao Paulo 10th with 39 points from 30 matches
Team News
Team news is provisional with key players sidelined for both sides.
- Sao Paulo without Bosshardt, Buta (knee), Djhordney (yellow cards), D Duarte (knee), Ferreira, Luciano
- Vasco missing Mateus Carvalho (knee), Colidio (questionable injury), Cuesta (inactive)
- Reports indicate Calleri, Luciano and Ferreira trained after issues
- Lucas Moura expected to increase playing time gradually
Key Duels & Tactics
Tactical shape and key duels favor the away side with pressing intensity.
- Recent H2H favors Vasco with 2-1 win in April
- According to ge.globo, Jonathan Calleri aims for Libertadores qualification
- Vasco manager Pedro Emanuel seeks to win multiple competitions
- Vasco face rotation risk after Copa Sudamericana semifinal
- BTTS occurred in 1 of Vasco's last 5 games
The Numbers
Model projections and expected goals support the value bet on Vasco or draw.
- Model probabilities: 39% home, 30% draw, 30% away
- Expected goals: 1.37 for Sao Paulo, 1.13 for Vasco
- Most likely scoreline 1-0
- BTTS probability 51%, over 2.5 45%
- Vasco DA Gama or Draw at 1.68 offers value
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Vasco's excellent recent form with just 1 defeat.
- 2Sao Paulo hampered by several injuries including key forwards.
- 3The 1.68 odds represent a value bet with 2% edge over fair odds.
Verdict
Vasco DA Gama or Draw at 1.68 is our recommended value bet. The main risk is potential squad rotation by Vasco due to their Copa Sudamericana commitments.
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Sao Paulo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| AH2 +1.5Vasco DA Gama +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 79% | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.22 |
| 1XSao Paulo or Draw | 71% | 1.42 | 1.31 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | 1.79 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 51% | 1.97 | 1.85 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 49% | 2.03 | 1.90 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | 2.07 |
| 1Sao Paulo to win | 40% | 2.48 | 2.11 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | 3.50 |
| 2Vasco DA Gama to win | 29% | 3.40 | 3.52 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.89 | 3.50 |
| AH1 -1.5Sao Paulo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 21% | 4.74 | 3.95 |
| AH2 -1.5Vasco DA Gama -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.62 | 7.90 |
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | - | - | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.50 | 3.52 | 2.07 | 1.79 | 1.81 | 1.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.42 | 2.02 | 1.74 | 1.81 | 1.87 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.97 | 1.72 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.62 | 2.08 | 1.78 | - | - |
Recent form
Sao Paulo- 11 OctHVitoria2-1
- 8 OctACruzeiro0-2
- 3 OctHSantos1-2
- 20 SeptHInternacional1-0
- 16 SeptHBoca Juniors1-1
Vasco DA Gama- 14 OctABoca Juniors1-0
- 10 OctHRemo0-0
- 8 OctABotafogo2-1
- 20 SeptHCoritiba5-0
- 15 SeptHSanta Fe2-0
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama: FAQ
What is the Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?
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Our tip is Vasco DA Gama or Draw at odds of 1.74. Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who is the favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
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Sao Paulo are favourites. Our model gives Sao Paulo a 40% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama 29%, and the draw 30%.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
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We rate both teams to score at 51%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
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Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama kicks off at 00:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Morumbi, Sao Paulo.
