La Liga· Regular Season - 14
Real Madrid
Alaves29 Nov
Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 29 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.0
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Real Madrid vs Alaves tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Real Madrid +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XReal Madrid or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Alaves +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.48 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | - |
| X2Alaves or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 55% | 1.83 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 45% | 2.21 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | - |
| 1Real Madrid to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.03 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Real Madrid -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.08 | - |
| 2Alaves to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Alaves -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 13.10 | - |
Real Madrid vs Alaves preview & analysis
Match preview
Real Madrid host Alaves in the La Liga (Regular Season - 14) on Sunday, 29 November 2026, with kick-off at 16:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Real Madrid arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Most recently they beat AS Roma 4-3 away. They're 4th in the table with 18 points from 8 games. Alaves are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to Atletico Madrid 1-2 at home. They're 7th in the table with 11 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Real Madrid have won 6, Alaves have won 0 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.0 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Real Madrid narrow favourites: Real Madrid 44%, draw 38%, Alaves 18%. We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 55% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 55% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Real Madrid 1-0 Alaves.
Recent form
Real Madrid- 14 OctAAS Roma4-3
- 10 OctHVillarreal1-0
- 20 SeptAAtletico Madrid1-2
- 15 SeptAElche3-2
- 12 SeptHRayo Vallecano4-1
Alaves- 10 OctHAtletico Madrid1-2
- 19 SeptAAthletic Club0-0
- 15 SeptHValencia0-1
- 12 SeptARacing Santander1-2
- 6 SeptHOsasuna5-2
Head to head
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Real Madrid vs Alaves: FAQ
What is the Real Madrid vs Alaves prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Real Madrid 1-0 Alaves.
Who is the favourite to win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
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Real Madrid are favourites. Our model gives Real Madrid a 44% chance of winning, Alaves 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
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We rate both teams to score at 55%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Real Madrid vs Alaves kick off?
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Real Madrid vs Alaves kicks off at 16:00 UTC on Sunday, 29 November 2026.
