Nations League· League A - 4· Estádio do Dragão
Portugal
Norway2-1
FT
Portugal vs Norway Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Portugal vs Norway tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Portugal +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XPortugal or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 64% | 1.56 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Norway +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 63% | 1.60 | - |
| X2Norway or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | - |
| 1Portugal to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Portugal -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 37% | 2.67 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| 2Norway to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Norway -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.07 | - |
Portugal vs Norway preview & analysis
Match preview
Portugal host Norway in the Nations League (League A - 4) at Estádio do Dragão on Sunday, 4 October 2026, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Portugal arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Denmark 4-2 away. They're 1st in the table with 12 points from 4 games. Norway are struggling for results, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to Wales 1-2 away. They're 4th in the table with 3 points from 4 games.
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting between these sides, Portugal have won 1, Norway have won 0 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.0 goals, and both teams scored in 1 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Portugal narrow favourites: Portugal 44%, draw 38%, Norway 18%. We expect around 3.5 goals (2.2 - 1.3 in expected goals), with 68% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Portugal- 1 OctADenmark4-2
- 27 SeptANorway2-1
- 24 SeptHWales1-0
- 6 JulHSpain0-1
- 3 JulHCroatia2-1
Norway- 1 OctAWales1-2
- 27 SeptHPortugal1-2
- 24 SeptHDenmark3-2
- 11 JulHEngland1-2
- 5 JulABrazil2-1
Head to head
Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
Portugal vs Norway: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Portugal vs Norway?
+
Portugal are favourites. Our model gives Portugal a 44% chance of winning, Norway 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Norway?
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We rate both teams to score at 64%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Portugal vs Norway kick off?
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Portugal vs Norway kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Sunday, 4 October 2026 at Estádio do Dragão, Porto.
