Nations League· League D - 4· Bakcell Arena
Azerbaijan
Lithuania1-0
FT
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Azerbaijan vs Lithuania tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Lithuania +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.07 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Azerbaijan +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 85% | 1.18 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | - |
| X2Lithuania or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 71% | 1.42 | - |
| 1XAzerbaijan or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| 2Lithuania to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 29% | 3.41 | - |
| 1Azerbaijan to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 4.62 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Lithuania -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 15% | 6.54 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 12.69 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Azerbaijan -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 15.21 | - |
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania preview & analysis
Match preview
Azerbaijan host Lithuania in the Nations League (League D - 4) at Bakcell Arena on Sunday, 4 October 2026, with kick-off at 13:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Azerbaijan arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Most recently they drew with Liechtenstein 0-0 at home. They're 1st in the table with 5 points from 3 games. Lithuania arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Most recently they beat Andorra 3-0 at home. They're 2nd in the table with 4 points from 3 games.
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings between these sides, Azerbaijan have won 0, Lithuania have won 0 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 1.0 goals, and both teams scored in 1 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Lithuania narrow favourites: Azerbaijan 23%, draw 38%, Lithuania 39%. We expect around 1.6 goals (0.7 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 22% for over 2.5 and 29% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Azerbaijan- 1 OctHLiechtenstein0-0
- 27 SeptALithuania1-1
- 23 SeptHTajikistan1-0
- 9 JunHSan Marino2-1
- 5 JunHMalta0-2
Lithuania- 30 SeptHAndorra3-0
- 27 SeptHAzerbaijan1-1
- 24 SeptALiechtenstein2-0
- 9 JunAEstonia0-1
- 6 JunHLatvia1-1
Head to head
Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
+
Lithuania are favourites. Our model gives Azerbaijan a 23% chance of winning, Lithuania 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
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We rate both teams to score at 29%, so BTTS No is the better bet.
When does Azerbaijan vs Lithuania kick off?
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Azerbaijan vs Lithuania kicks off at 13:00 UTC on Sunday, 4 October 2026 at Bakcell Arena, Baku.
