Premier League· Regular Season - 14· St. James' Park
Newcastle
Sunderland5 Dec
Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 5 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
2.2 - 1.2
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Newcastle vs Sunderland tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Newcastle +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XNewcastle or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Sunderland +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 63% | 1.58 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 63% | 1.60 | - |
| X2Sunderland or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | - |
| 1Newcastle to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 37% | 2.67 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Newcastle -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 37% | 2.73 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.94 | - |
| 2Sunderland to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Sunderland -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.20 | - |
Newcastle vs Sunderland preview & analysis
Match preview
Newcastle host Sunderland in the Premier League (Regular Season - 14) at St. James' Park on Saturday, 5 December 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Newcastle arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Most recently they lost to Coventry 1-4 away. They're 11th in the table with 8 points from 6 games. Sunderland are struggling for results, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Most recently they beat Torreense 2-1 away. They're 17th in the table with 4 points from 6 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Newcastle have won 1, Sunderland have won 4 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.2 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Newcastle narrow favourites: Newcastle 44%, draw 38%, Sunderland 18%. We expect around 3.4 goals (2.2 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 66% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 66% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Newcastle 2-1 Sunderland.
Recent form
Newcastle- 12 OctACoventry1-4
- 19 SeptHHull City2-1
- 14 SeptALeeds1-4
- 8 SeptAMillwall1-0
- 5 SeptHBournemouth2-2
Sunderland- 15 OctATorreense2-1
- 10 OctHBrighton0-2
- 20 SeptAManchester City3-5
- 16 SeptHAZ Alkmaar1-0
- 12 SeptHArsenal0-2
Head to head
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 |  Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |  Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 |  Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 |  Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Newcastle vs Sunderland: FAQ
What is the Newcastle vs Sunderland prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Newcastle 2-1 Sunderland.
Who is the favourite to win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
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Newcastle are favourites. Our model gives Newcastle a 44% chance of winning, Sunderland 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
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We rate both teams to score at 63%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Newcastle vs Sunderland kick off?
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Newcastle vs Sunderland kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday, 5 December 2026 at St. James' Park, Newcastle.
