Brasileirão· Regular Season - 33· Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia
Sao Paulo29 Oct
Bahia vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.5 - 0.9
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Bahia vs Sao Paulo tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Bahia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.07 | - |
| 1XBahia or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Sao Paulo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 72% | 1.38 | - |
| X2Sao Paulo or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 55% | 1.83 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 45% | 2.20 | - |
| 1Bahia to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.32 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Bahia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 28% | 3.62 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.52 | - |
| 2Sao Paulo to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Sao Paulo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 14.62 | - |
Bahia vs Sao Paulo preview & analysis
Match preview
Bahia host Sao Paulo in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 33) at Arena Fonte Nova on Thursday, 29 October 2026, with kick-off at 00:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Bahia arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Most recently they beat Mirassol 1-0 at home. They're 5th in the table with 49 points from 30 games. Sao Paulo arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Most recently they beat Vitoria 2-1 at home. They're 10th in the table with 39 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Bahia have won 1, Sao Paulo have won 4 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.8 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Bahia narrow favourites: Bahia 44%, draw 38%, Sao Paulo 18%. We expect around 2.4 goals (1.5 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 43% for over 2.5 and 45% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 57% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Bahia 1-0 Sao Paulo.
Recent form
Bahia- 11 OctHMirassol1-0
- 9 OctAPalmeiras0-1
- 20 SeptAAtletico Paranaense1-2
- 15 SeptHRemo2-1
- 5 SeptARB Bragantino3-2
Sao Paulo- 11 OctHVitoria2-1
- 8 OctACruzeiro0-2
- 3 OctHSantos1-2
- 20 SeptHInternacional1-0
- 16 SeptHBoca Juniors1-1
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Bahia vs Sao Paulo: FAQ
What is the Bahia vs Sao Paulo prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Bahia 1-0 Sao Paulo.
Who is the favourite to win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
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Bahia are favourites. Our model gives Bahia a 44% chance of winning, Sao Paulo 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
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We rate both teams to score at 45%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Bahia vs Sao Paulo kick off?
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Bahia vs Sao Paulo kicks off at 00:30 UTC on Thursday, 29 October 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador.
