Brasileirão· Regular Season - 31· Arena da Baixada
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras17 Oct
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
0-1
Fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.4
Get notified
Kick-off reminders with our tip, final results and new expert analyses, straight to your browser.
Fan vote
Who will win?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
How many goals?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
Match probabilities
More Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Palmeiras +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 88% | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| AH1 +1.5Atletico Paranaense +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 80% | 1.26 | 1.12 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.22 |
| X2Palmeiras or Draw | 70% | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| 1XAtletico Paranaense or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | 1.56 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 52% | 1.93 | 1.80 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 48% | 2.08 | 1.93 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.17 | 2.07 |
| 2Palmeiras to win | 39% | 2.54 | 2.48 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | 3.38 |
| 1Atletico Paranaense to win | 30% | 3.39 | 2.93 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.86 | 3.48 |
| AH2 -1.5Palmeiras -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 20% | 4.88 | 4.75 |
| AH1 -1.5Atletico Paranaense -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 12% | 8.31 | 5.95 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 | - | - | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| 1xBet | 2.93 | 3.38 | 2.47 | 2.07 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.35 | 2.48 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.28 | 2.39 | 2.02 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.45 | 1.98 | 1.71 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.30 | 2.52 | 2.10 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras preview & analysis
Match preview
Atletico Paranaense host Palmeiras in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 31) at Arena da Baixada on Saturday, 17 October 2026, with kick-off at 22:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Atletico Paranaense arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Most recently they beat Chapecoense-sc 4-1 away. They're 3rd in the table with 53 points from 30 games. Palmeiras arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Fluminense 2-1 away. They're 2nd in the table with 63 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Palmeiras have won 4 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Palmeiras narrow favourites: Atletico Paranaense 30%, draw 31%, Palmeiras 39%. We expect around 2.5 goals (1.1 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 46% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.79, which our model rates at a 54% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Palmeiras.
Recent form
Atletico Paranaense- 12 OctAChapecoense-sc4-1
- 9 OctHAtletico-MG2-2
- 20 SeptHBahia2-1
- 12 SeptACoritiba3-3
- 6 SeptACruzeiro1-3
Palmeiras- 15 OctAFluminense2-1
- 11 OctHCorinthians4-1
- 9 OctHBahia1-0
- 20 SeptAGremio0-0
- 16 SeptALDU de Quito2-3
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras: FAQ
What is the Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras prediction?
+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.79. Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who is the favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
+
Palmeiras are favourites. Our model gives Atletico Paranaense a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras 39%, and the draw 31%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
+
We rate both teams to score at 52%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kick off?
+
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kicks off at 22:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.
More Brasileirão predictions
See allOther big matches
See all
Werder Bremen
SC Paderborn 07Both teams to score · 62%