Conference League· League Stage - 1· New Balance Arena
Atalanta
Pafos3-1
FT
Atalanta vs Pafos Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
Predicted score
2-0
Fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
2.7 - 0.8
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Votes: 0Expert analysis
Atalanta vs Pafos: Back the Goals, Not the Price
Analysis by Tunde Okafor
Europa League, Conference League, Turkey & Saudi ·
Atalanta host Pafos in their Conference League opener with a heavily one-sided goal projection and a short price on over 2.5 goals. The 2-0 scoreline is the single likeliest result, so this is a percentage play rather than a value bet.
Form & Context
Atalanta come into this after finally stopping a three-match slide, while Pafos travel in decent shape but with low-scoring habits.
- Atalanta beat Venezia 3-1 on 12 October, ending a run of three straight defeats.
- Their last five read 2W 0D 3L, with 6 scored and 7 conceded, and over 2.5 landing in 3 of 5.
- Pafos are 3W 1D 1L in five, but over 2.5 has come in just 1 of 5 and both teams scored in only 1 of 5.
- Sarri told ANSA the focus is on points and that he has asked his players to be humble.
- Sá Pinto said his side has no pressure and respects Atalanta "but without fear", per Pafos club media.
Team News
Both sides have absences, and Atalanta's is the longer one.
- Atalanta's reported squad list for tonight excludes Scalvini, Kessié, Hien, Kossounou, Sulemana and Pompei, with Bellanova also left out as a precaution (calcioatalanta.it).
- An expected, unconfirmed XI has Scamacca leading the line behind Elmas, De Ketelaere and Rowe.
- Pafos are without David Goldar and Moumi Ngamaleu, according to Corriere dello Sport's matchday preview.
- Lele arrives after scoring twice in Pafos's previous league outing.
- No suspensions are reported for either side.
The Numbers
The goal projection leans heavily towards the home end.
- The model puts Atalanta on 2.47 expected goals and Pafos on 0.70.
- Over 2.5 goals is rated at 61%, one of the strongest probabilities on the board.
- 2-0 is still the single most likely scoreline, which is the honest caveat here.
- The price is 1.48 against a fair 1.63, so you are paying for likelihood rather than edge.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Atalanta carry the bulk of the goal expectation at 2.47, and Pafos concede enough to be pulled into an open game.
- 2Over 2.5 goals is rated at 61%, comfortably the most probable goal-market outcome in this fixture.
- 3Atalanta's recent games have been loose at both ends, with over 2.5 and both teams scoring in three of their last five.
Verdict
The call is over 2.5 goals at 1.48. The main risk is that Atalanta control this comfortably and win 2-0, leaving the line one goal short, exactly as the most likely scoreline suggests.
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Atalanta vs Pafos tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Atalanta +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 98% | 1.02 | - |
| 1XAtalanta or Draw | 86% | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| 1Atalanta to win | 67% | 1.49 | 1.31 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| AH1 -1.5Atalanta -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 57% | 1.75 | 1.82 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 2.03 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 45% | 2.21 | 2.15 |
| AH2 +1.5Pafos +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 43% | 2.34 | 2.05 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.01 | 2.70 |
| X2Pafos or Draw | 33% | 3.04 | 3.60 |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.17 | 6.20 |
| 2Pafos to win | 14% | 7.41 | 9.90 |
| AH2 -1.5Pafos -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 2% | 46.04 | - |
Atalanta vs Pafos odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.00 | - | - | 1.67 | 2.15 |
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 5.84 | 9.90 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.69 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 1.30 | 6.20 | 8.80 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.75 | 9.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 5.40 | 9.20 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.69 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.50 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.50 | 1.39 | 2.70 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 5.82 | 9.11 | 1.37 | 3.15 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.28 | 5.32 | 7.34 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 1.34 | 6.10 | 9.00 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Recent form
Atalanta- 12 OctHVenezia3-1
- 20 SeptAJuventus0-2
- 12 SeptHCagliari1-2
- 5 SeptAAS Roma1-2
- 31 AugHBologna1-0
Pafos- 11 OctAAnorthosis3-1
- 18 SeptHAEL0-2
- 13 SeptAAEK Larnaca1-0
- 7 SeptHOlympiakos0-0
- 3 SeptAOmonia Nicosia1-0
Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |  FC Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Atalanta vs Pafos: FAQ
What is the Atalanta vs Pafos prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.69. Our predicted score is Atalanta 2-0 Pafos.
Who is the favourite to win Atalanta vs Pafos?
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Atalanta are favourites. Our model gives Atalanta a 67% chance of winning, Pafos 14%, and the draw 19%.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Pafos?
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We rate both teams to score at 55%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Atalanta vs Pafos kick off?
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Atalanta vs Pafos kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo.
