Europa League· League Stage - 2· AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
AZ Alkmaar
Hapoel Beer Sheva2-1
FT
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.73
Expected goals
2.4 - 1.0
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Expert analysis
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: Over 2.5 goals the strong-probability play
Analysis by Tunde Okafor
Europa League, Conference League, Turkey & Saudi ·
AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Beer Sheva in the Europa League league phase, with our model making Over 2.5 goals a 64% chance. The best price is 1.52, so this is about likelihood rather than a big-value edge.
Form and context
AZ's last five: L 0-2 vs Feyenoord, W 1-0 vs Telstar, L 0-1 vs Sunderland, D 1-1 vs Willem II, W 3-2 vs Heerenveen. Their five-game totals: 2W 1D 2L, scored 5, conceded 6, over 2.5 in 1, BTTS in 2. In Europe they lost 1-0 at Sunderland. Hapoel's last five: W 2-0 vs Ironi Tiberias, W 1-0 vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona, D 0-0 vs Dinamo Zagreb, W 2-0 vs Hapoel Petah Tikva, L 1-4 vs Maccabi Tel Aviv. Totals: 3W 1D 1L, scored 6, conceded 4, over 2.5 in 1, BTTS in 1. They drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb in their opener, and their 2-0 win at Ironi Tiberias was a third straight domestic league clean sheet, according to the club's official report. Table: AZ 26 of 36, 0 pts from 1; Hapoel 20 of 36, 1 pt from 1.
Team news
AZ are missing Jizz Hornkamp, Kees Smit and Stije Resink, with Resink reported to have an ACL injury. H. Verhulst is off the roster. Denso Kasius returned to the matchday squad for the Feyenoord game after injury, per AZ's official news. Sports Mole projects a 4-2-3-1: De Busser; Dijkstra, Goes, Schouten, Chavez; Clasie, Koopmeiners; Oufkir, Byskov, Daal; Meerdink. Calvin Stengs is an alternative, but that preview selects Valdemar Byskov. Hapoel miss Dan Biton (heart-related issue) and Y. Stoyanov (off roster). Sports Mole reports Djibril Diop and Eliel Peretz are back after suspensions. Hapoel's official report of their 2-0 win over Ironi Tiberias included Lucas Ventura and Diop starting, with Peretz among the substitutes. Sports Mole projects a 4-3-3: Marciano; Mizrahi, Diop, Vítor, Amador; Amankwah, Ventura, Peretz; East, Zlatanović, João Victor. No fresh suspensions confirmed.
Key matchup and tactics
AZ are at home seeking their first league-phase win. Peer Koopmeiners said 'We have to get the job done,' according to AZ's official website. Hapoel have been defensively solid domestically but conceded four at home to Maccabi Tel Aviv. The model's expected goals are AZ 2.49 and Hapoel 0.82, pointing to a home side likely to create and score. Hapoel's opening European home fixture was played in Bucharest because of the security situation related to the Gaza war; this away match in Alkmaar is another European fixture outside Israel's home setting.
The numbers
The model gives Over 2.5 goals a 64% probability. Best price is 1.52, with fair odds listed at 1.56. The most likely single score is 2-0, which would not clear the line - that is the main risk. BTTS is rated at 51%. This is a strong-probability pick rather than a big-value price: the appeal is the likelihood of three or more goals, not a generous price.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Model makes Over 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
- 2AZ's expected goals of 2.49 point to a multi-goal home performance.
- 3Hapoel conceded four to Maccabi Tel Aviv and have shown they can ship goals.
Verdict
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at 1.52. It is a strong-probability selection rather than a big-value price.
Sources
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5AZ Alkmaar +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| 1XAZ Alkmaar or Draw | 80% | 1.25 | 1.12 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.39 |
| 1AZ Alkmaar to win | 56% | 1.79 | 1.48 |
| AH2 +1.5Hapoel Beer Sheva +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 56% | 1.80 | 1.76 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.82 | 1.77 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 2.21 | 2.14 |
| AH1 -1.5AZ Alkmaar -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 44% | 2.25 | 2.16 |
| X2Hapoel Beer Sheva or Draw | 44% | 2.27 | 2.88 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 42% | 2.38 | 2.28 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.94 | 2.70 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.20 | 5.12 |
| 2Hapoel Beer Sheva to win | 20% | 4.93 | 6.84 |
| AH2 -1.5Hapoel Beer Sheva -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 19.31 | 11.50 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 | - | - | 1.62 | 2.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 5.12 | 6.84 | 1.39 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.28 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 5.00 | 6.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.75 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.43 | 5.05 | 6.75 | 1.39 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.44 | 2.53 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 5.12 | 6.32 | 1.46 | 2.80 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.42 | 4.67 | 5.90 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 1.50 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
Recent form
AZ Alkmaar- 10 OctAFeyenoord0-2
- 20 SeptHTelstar1-0
- 16 SeptASunderland0-1
- 11 SeptHWillem II1-1
- 6 SeptAHeerenveen3-2
Hapoel Beer Sheva- 10 OctAIroni Tiberias2-0
- 19 SeptHIroni Kiryat Shmona1-0
- 16 SeptHDinamo Zagreb0-0
- 13 SeptAHapoel Petah Tikva2-0
- 7 SeptHMaccabi Tel Aviv1-4
Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 18 |  Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 |  Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 |  Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 |  Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 |  Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 |  Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: FAQ
What is the AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.73. Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Who is the favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
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AZ Alkmaar are favourites. Our model gives AZ Alkmaar a 56% chance of winning, Hapoel Beer Sheva 20%, and the draw 24%.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
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We rate both teams to score at 58%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva kick off?
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AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva kicks off at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar.
