Conference League· League Stage - 1· Planet Group Arena
Gent
Aarhus1-0
LIVE 90'
Gent vs Aarhus Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Gent to win
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.9 - 0.9
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Gent to win: the steady call at Planet Group Arena
Analysis by Tunde Okafor
Europa League, Conference League, Turkey & Saudi ·
Gent are unbeaten in five and the model makes them clear favourites for their opening Conference League home game. Aarhus have scored freely but travel with a heavily trimmed squad and a Sunday trip to Copenhagen on their minds.
Form and context
Gent arrive in excellent shape and sit top of the Belgian league, according to AGF's own preview.
- Gent's last five: 4W 1D 0L, scoring 9 and conceding just 2
- They won 2-0 away at Zulte Waregem on 10 October
- AGF's last five: 3W 1D 1L, 13 scored, 6 conceded, over 2.5 in 4
- This is AGF's historic first Conference League league-phase campaign
- AGF play away at FC Copenhagen on Sunday, 18 October, so changes are expected
Team news
Both squads have real gaps, and Gent's are in attacking areas.
- Gent's Josué Vergara is out with a muscle injury, confirmed by head coach Rik De Mil
- László Bénes (ankle) and Mouhamed Ngom are also reported unavailable by Goal.com
- Maksim Paskotsi was doubtful after travelling to Estonia following a family bereavement
- AGF are without Kevin Yakob after knee surgery, plus Oskar Haugstrup, Nicolai Poulsen and Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
- Coach Jakob Poulsen confirmed Gift Links, Mouhammade Camara and Nicolai Poulsen did not travel
The numbers
The model and the goal expectations both point one way.
- Win probabilities: Gent 54%, draw 25%, Aarhus 21%
- Expected goals: Gent 1.85, Aarhus 0.88
- Most likely scoreline: 1-0
- Over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring both sit at 51%
- Best price on a Gent win is 1.69
The tip
Gent to win is the most likely outcome here rather than a big-value price, and the case is built on defence.
- Two goals conceded in five games is the backbone of the selection
- Jakob Poulsen called Gent "a very solid team" who "don't give opponents many chances"
- AGF's congested week and absentees make a rotated side likely
- The main risk is that Gent's missing attackers blunt them, and AGF have scored 13 in five
- Poulsen's fresher legs could also make AGF sharper than the table suggests
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Gent are unbeaten in five with only two goals conceded.
- 2Aarhus travel with several absentees and a Sunday league trip to Copenhagen.
- 3Expected goals of 1.85 to 0.88 and a 54% win probability both favour the hosts.
Verdict
Back Gent to win at 1.69. They are the more settled, better-drilled side here, and the price reflects a strong-probability call rather than a bargain.
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Gent vs Aarhus tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Gent +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| 1XGent or Draw | 79% | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.33 |
| AH2 +1.5Aarhus +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 63% | 1.59 | 1.46 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | 1.84 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 52% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 48% | 2.06 | 1.95 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 | 2.03 |
| X2Aarhus or Draw | 45% | 2.21 | 2.28 |
| AH1 -1.5Gent -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 37% | 2.70 | 2.84 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.21 | 2.83 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | 4.20 |
| 2Aarhus to win | 21% | 4.87 | 5.40 |
| AH2 -1.5Aarhus -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 19.45 | 11.50 |
Gent vs Aarhus odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.80 | - | - | 1.83 | 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.20 | 5.13 | 1.84 | 2.03 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.40 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.05 | 4.95 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.78 | 1.90 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.78 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.42 | 1.84 | 2.04 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.56 | 3.76 | 4.94 | 1.80 | 2.04 | - | - |
| Betano | 1.65 | 4.30 | 5.30 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
Recent form
Gent- 10 OctAZulte Waregem2-0
- 18 SeptHStandard Liege2-1
- 13 SeptAGenk1-1
- 6 SeptACercle Brugge3-0
- 3 SeptHOH Leuven1-0
Aarhus- 12 OctHSonderjyske3-0
- 2 OctHVendsyssel FF2-1
- 20 SeptAAC Horsens2-2
- 16 SeptASkjold Sæby6-1
- 13 SeptAFC Nordsjaelland0-2
Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Gent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |  FC Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |  FC Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gent vs Aarhus: FAQ
What is the Gent vs Aarhus prediction?
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Our tip is Gent to win at odds of 1.66. Our predicted score is Gent 1-0 Aarhus.
Who is the favourite to win Gent vs Aarhus?
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Gent are favourites. Our model gives Gent a 55% chance of winning, Aarhus 21%, and the draw 25%.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Aarhus?
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We rate both teams to score at 52%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Gent vs Aarhus kick off?
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Gent vs Aarhus kicks off at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at Planet Group Arena, Gent.
