CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Prediction & Betting Tips

Both sides come in unbeaten, but the level of opposition is very different.

• CSKA Sofia's last five: 4W 1D, with 14 scored and 6 conceded.
• Monaco's last five: 3W 2D, including a 2-1 win at Paris Saint Germain.
• Monaco reached this stage by beating Gornik Zabrze 7-3 on aggregate.
• CSKA dropped in after losing their Europa League playoff 0-5 on aggregate to OFI Crete.
• This is Monaco's first Conference League league-phase match; CSKA are seeded 13th of 36.

Monaco have one confirmed absence, while CSKA's picture is less clear.

• Monaco announced that Eric Dier misses out with discomfort in his right quadriceps.
• Mamadou Coulibaly is back from injury and Paris Brunner returns from a Ligue 1 suspension.
• Takumi Minamino travelled, and Filipe Luis said Denis Zakaria felt well after his Toulouse discomfort.
• No confirmed injury absence was established for CSKA Sofia in the pre-match coverage reviewed.
• A projected CSKA XI in 4-3-3 has been published, but it is not an official team sheet.

The numbers point to Monaco controlling the game and CSKA living on scraps.

• Monaco's expected goals tally is 2.17, against 0.84 for CSKA Sofia.
• The most likely scoreline is 0-2.
• Monaco's five matches: over 2.5 goals in 3, both teams scoring in 4.
• CSKA's five matches: over 2.5 goals in 3, both teams scoring in 4.
• Head to head adds a note of caution, as Monaco lost both previous visits to this stadium.

This is a likelihood call rather than a long-price value hunt.

• Monaco to win is available at 1.52.
• The model gives Monaco 59%, the draw 23% and CSKA Sofia 19%.
• That reading makes the fair price 1.71, so 1.52 is a short price for a strong probability.
• Main risk: CSKA are unbeaten in five and have scored 14, so one set-piece or counter can swing a tight game.