Conference League· League Stage - 1· Stadion Poljud
HNK Hajduk Split
Ajax2-1
FT
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
1.2 - 2.0
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Fan vote
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Votes: 0Expert analysis
Hajduk vs Ajax: Poljud braced for goals
Analysis by Tunde Okafor
Europa League, Conference League, Turkey & Saudi ·
Hajduk Split host Ajax in their first major European league phase night in around 16 years, and both teams arrive scoring freely. Over 2.5 goals is the most likely outcome at 1.6, with the model putting it at 61%.
Form and context
Both sides come in scoring goals, and neither has been keeping things quiet at the back.
- Hajduk have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4
- Their run includes a 2-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb, and they are reported to be leading the Croatian league
- Ajax's last five read 2W 2D 1L, with 14 scored and over 2.5 landing in 4 of 5
- Ajax have drawn their last two league games 1-1 and 2-2, so they are not closing matches down
- Reports say this is Hajduk's return to a major European league phase after about 16 years
Team news
Both squads are patched up, though the starting line-ups are still predicted rather than official.
- Hajduk are without Roko Brajković (knee surgery) and Adrion Pajaziti (hamstring, confirmed out by coach Gonzalo García)
- Ivica Ivušić is also reported unavailable, with Toni Silić expected in goal
- Ajax confirmed Simon Adingra did not travel and Yves Bissouma is ineligible for the league phase
- According to Ajax, Kasper Dolberg, Daley Blind, Anton Gaaei, Steven Berghuis and Caio Henrique are among the absentees from their 22-man squad
Where the goals come from
The model leans towards an open game rather than a cagey opener.
- Expected goals read Hajduk 1.11 and Ajax 2.04
- The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with Ajax at 50% to win
- Over 2.5 goals is priced at 61% and both teams to score at 59%
- Ajax have seen over 2.5 in 4 of 5 and BTTS in all 5; Hajduk over 2.5 in 3 of 5
The pick
Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 is the call, with fair odds around 1.64.
- This is a strong-probability pick rather than a big-value price, so the margin is thin
- García calls Ajax "a team with very good players" building again, and Míchel Sánchez says "the result will depend on who dominates more and who is better on the ball"
- Main risk: Ajax's 1-1 and 2-2 draws show they can be dragged into tighter games if they protect a lead
- With both back lines reshuffled, chances should still arrive at both ends
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Both teams are scoring regularly, with Ajax hitting over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 and Hajduk in 3 of 5.
- 2Ajax carry the bigger attacking threat, and the model gives them 2.04 expected goals alone.
- 3Defensive absences on both sides point to a more open contest than a low-scoring one.
Verdict
The recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at best odds of 1.6. It is the most likely outcome on the numbers, with the fair price sitting close to 1.64.
Sources
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Ajax +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.10 | 1.01 |
| X2Ajax or Draw | 75% | 1.34 | 1.22 |
| AH1 +1.5HNK Hajduk Split +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 67% | 1.50 | 1.45 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.62 | 1.48 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | 1.62 |
| 1XHNK Hajduk Split or Draw | 52% | 1.93 | 2.15 |
| 2Ajax to win | 48% | 2.07 | 1.75 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.43 | 2.38 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 39% | 2.57 | 2.38 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.61 | 2.33 |
| AH2 -1.5Ajax -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 33% | 3.02 | 2.87 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.81 | 4.30 |
| 1HNK Hajduk Split to win | 25% | 3.93 | 4.46 |
| AH1 -1.5HNK Hajduk Split -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.32 | 8.80 |
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.75 | - | - | 1.57 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 4.46 | 4.25 | 1.73 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 4.30 | 1.75 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 4.30 | 4.10 | 1.67 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.53 | 2.31 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 4.50 | 4.12 | 1.73 | 1.56 | 2.49 | - | - |
| SBO | 4.30 | 4.00 | 1.60 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 4.40 | 4.30 | 1.78 | 1.52 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
Recent form
HNK Hajduk Split- 10 OctHDinamo Zagreb2-1
- 20 SeptAHNK Rijeka0-3
- 13 SeptHNK Slaven Belupo1-0
- 8 SeptAVardarac2-0
- 6 SeptARudes4-0
Ajax- 10 OctHNEC Nijmegen1-1
- 19 SeptHExcelsior2-2
- 15 SeptHWillem II5-1
- 12 SeptAFortuna Sittard5-1
- 5 SeptHPSV Eindhoven1-3
Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |  KuPS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax: FAQ
What is the HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.57. Our predicted score is HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 Ajax.
Who is the favourite to win HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
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Ajax are favourites. Our model gives HNK Hajduk Split a 25% chance of winning, Ajax 48%, and the draw 26%.
Will both teams score in HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
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We rate both teams to score at 61%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax kick off?
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HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax kicks off at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at Stadion Poljud, Split.
