Bundesliga· Regular Season - 12
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV5 Dec
Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 5 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.7
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Match probabilities
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More Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Union Berlin +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 83% | 1.20 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Hamburger SV +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 74% | 1.35 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 72% | 1.39 | - |
| 1XUnion Berlin or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| X2Hamburger SV or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 1Union Berlin to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Hamburger SV to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 28% | 3.57 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Union Berlin -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 26% | 3.84 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Hamburger SV -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 17% | 5.96 | - |
Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV preview & analysis
Match preview
Union Berlin host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 12) on Saturday, 5 December 2026, with kick-off at 14:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Union Berlin are struggling for results, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 14. Most recently they beat SV Elversberg 1-0 at home. They're 16th in the table with 4 points from 5 games. Hamburger SV arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Most recently they beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 away. They're 12th in the table with 6 points from 5 games.
Head to head
In the last 4 meetings between these sides, Union Berlin have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 1 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 2.8 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Union Berlin narrow favourites: Union Berlin 38%, draw 32%, Hamburger SV 30%. We expect around 3.8 goals (2.1 - 1.7 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 72% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 73% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Union Berlin 2-1 Hamburger SV.
Recent form
Union Berlin- 10 OctHSV Elversberg1-0
- 26 SeptAHNK Rijeka1-0
- 18 SeptABayern München0-7
- 11 SeptHFC Schalke 041-3
- 5 SeptABayer Leverkusen0-4
Hamburger SV- 10 OctA1899 Hoffenheim3-2
- 4 OctHFC Copenhagen2-0
- 19 SeptH1. FC Köln2-1
- 13 SeptARB Leipzig0-5
- 6 SeptHFSV Mainz 050-5
Head to head
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 |  FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV: FAQ
What is the Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Union Berlin 2-1 Hamburger SV.
Who is the favourite to win Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV?
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Union Berlin are favourites. Our model gives Union Berlin a 38% chance of winning, Hamburger SV 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV?
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We rate both teams to score at 72%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV kick off?
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Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV kicks off at 14:30 UTC on Saturday, 5 December 2026.
