Ligue 1· Regular Season - 13· Stadium Municipal
Toulouse
Paris Saint Germain5 Dec
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 5 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.9
Add to My Teams
Pick the teams and leagues you care about. We save them on this device, no sign-up needed.
Fan vote
Who will win?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
How many goals?
Votes: 0Vote to see what other fans think
Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Paris Saint Germain +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | - |
| X2Paris Saint Germain or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Toulouse +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 71% | 1.41 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| 1XToulouse or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| 2Paris Saint Germain to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 38% | 2.63 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.63 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Paris Saint Germain -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 29% | 3.45 | - |
| 1Toulouse to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Toulouse -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.94 | - |
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain preview & analysis
Match preview
Toulouse host Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 13) at Stadium Municipal on Saturday, 5 December 2026, with kick-off at 16:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Toulouse arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Most recently they beat Le Mans 3-0 away. They're 7th in the table with 9 points from 7 games. Paris Saint Germain arrive in superb form, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Manchester City 4-2 away. They're 6th in the table with 11 points from 6 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Toulouse have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 5 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.8 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain narrow favourites: Toulouse 23%, draw 38%, Paris Saint Germain 39%. We expect around 3.2 goals (1.3 - 1.9 in expected goals), with 62% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 62% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Toulouse 1-2 Paris Saint Germain.
Recent form
Toulouse- 16 OctALe Mans3-0
- 10 OctAMonaco2-2
- 3 OctHPAU2-3
- 19 SeptHLe Havre3-2
- 12 SeptALorient2-2
Paris Saint Germain- 14 OctAManchester City4-2
- 10 OctHLe Mans3-1
- 20 SeptAMarseille2-1
- 13 SeptAStade Brestois 291-0
- 9 SeptHSlovan Bratislava6-1
Head to head
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 |  Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 9 |  Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |  Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain: FAQ
What is the Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?
+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Toulouse 1-2 Paris Saint Germain.
Who is the favourite to win Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
+
Paris Saint Germain are favourites. Our model gives Toulouse a 23% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
+
We rate both teams to score at 62%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
+
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kicks off at 16:00 UTC on Saturday, 5 December 2026 at Stadium Municipal, Toulouse.
