Europa League· League Stage - 3· Merkur-Arena
Sturm Graz
Marseille22 Oct
Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
2.4 - 1.4
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Sturm Graz vs Marseille tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Sturm Graz +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 91% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XSturm Graz or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Marseille +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.66 | - |
| X2Marseille or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | - |
| 1Sturm Graz to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Sturm Graz -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.52 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.13 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | - |
| 2Marseille to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Marseille -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 9% | 11.74 | - |
Sturm Graz vs Marseille preview & analysis
Match preview
Sturm Graz host Marseille in the Europa League (League Stage - 3) at Merkur-Arena on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with kick-off at 16:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Sturm Graz arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Austria Vienna 2-0 away. They're 17th in the table with 1 point from 1 game. Marseille are struggling for results, with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Most recently they lost to Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 at home. They're 32nd in the table with 0 points from 1 game.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Sturm Graz narrow favourites: Sturm Graz 44%, draw 38%, Marseille 18%. We expect around 3.8 goals (2.4 - 1.4 in expected goals), with 73% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score, which our model rates at a 68% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Sturm Graz 2-1 Marseille.
Recent form
Sturm Graz- 10 OctAAustria Vienna2-0
- 2 OctHFloridsdorfer AC3-1
- 20 SeptARed Bull Salzburg0-3
- 16 SeptHRennes0-0
- 13 SeptHLask Linz2-1
Marseille- 15 OctHOlympiakos Piraeus0-1
- 11 OctAEstac Troyes2-0
- 20 SeptHParis Saint Germain1-2
- 17 SeptABeşiktaş1-4
- 11 SeptARennes0-1
Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 15 |  Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |  Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 30 |  AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 |  Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 |  Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: FAQ
What is the Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score. Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 2-1 Marseille.
Who is the favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
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Sturm Graz are favourites. Our model gives Sturm Graz a 44% chance of winning, Marseille 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Sturm Graz vs Marseille kick off?
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Sturm Graz vs Marseille kicks off at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz.
