Europa League· League Stage - 3· Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
Ararat-Armenia
AZ Alkmaar22 Oct
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
1.6 - 0.9
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Ararat-Armenia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.07 | - |
| 1XArarat-Armenia or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH2 +1.5AZ Alkmaar +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 72% | 1.39 | - |
| X2AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 54% | 1.87 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 46% | 2.16 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | - |
| 1Ararat-Armenia to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Ararat-Armenia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 28% | 3.56 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 4.31 | - |
| 2AZ Alkmaar to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5AZ Alkmaar -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 14.43 | - |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar preview & analysis
Match preview
Ararat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League (League Stage - 3) at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with kick-off at 16:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Ararat-Armenia arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Most recently they lost to Jagiellonia 1-3 away. They're 34th in the table with 0 points from 2 games. AZ Alkmaar arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 at home. They're 20th in the table with 3 points from 2 games.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Ararat-Armenia narrow favourites: Ararat-Armenia 44%, draw 38%, AZ Alkmaar 18%. We expect around 2.5 goals (1.6 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 44% for over 2.5 and 46% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 56% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Ararat-Armenia 1-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Recent form
Ararat-Armenia- 15 OctAJagiellonia1-3
- 10 OctHAlashkert1-1
- 3 OctAArarat4-0
- 20 SeptAShirak3-1
- 16 SeptHSparta Praha1-4
AZ Alkmaar- 15 OctHHapoel Beer Sheva2-1
- 10 OctAFeyenoord0-2
- 20 SeptHTelstar1-0
- 16 SeptASunderland0-1
- 11 SeptHWillem II1-1
Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 |  Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 18 |  OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 |  Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 32 |  Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 |  Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: FAQ
What is the Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Ararat-Armenia 1-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who is the favourite to win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
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Ararat-Armenia are favourites. Our model gives Ararat-Armenia a 44% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
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We rate both teams to score at 46%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
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Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar kicks off at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan.
