Brasileirão· Regular Season - 34· Estadio Do MorumBIS
Sao Paulo
Corinthians5 Nov
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.0
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Match probabilities
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More Sao Paulo vs Corinthians tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Sao Paulo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XSao Paulo or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Corinthians +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.48 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | - |
| X2Corinthians or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 55% | 1.83 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 45% | 2.21 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | - |
| 1Sao Paulo to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.03 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Sao Paulo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.08 | - |
| 2Corinthians to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Corinthians -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 13.10 | - |
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians preview & analysis
Match preview
Sao Paulo host Corinthians in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 34) at Estadio Do MorumBIS on Thursday, 5 November 2026, with kick-off at 00:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Sao Paulo arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Most recently they beat Vitoria 2-1 at home. They're 10th in the table with 39 points from 30 games. Corinthians are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 1-4 away. They're 16th in the table with 32 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Sao Paulo have won 3, Corinthians have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 3.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Sao Paulo narrow favourites: Sao Paulo 44%, draw 38%, Corinthians 18%. We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 55% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 55% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Sao Paulo 1-0 Corinthians.
Recent form
Sao Paulo- 11 OctHVitoria2-1
- 8 OctACruzeiro0-2
- 3 OctHSantos1-2
- 20 SeptHInternacional1-0
- 16 SeptHBoca Juniors1-1
Corinthians- 11 OctAPalmeiras1-4
- 7 OctAInternacional1-2
- 20 SeptHFluminense1-3
- 17 SeptHEstudiantes L.P.0-1
- 13 SeptAFlamengo1-2
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians: FAQ
What is the Sao Paulo vs Corinthians prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1-0 Corinthians.
Who is the favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
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Sao Paulo are favourites. Our model gives Sao Paulo a 44% chance of winning, Corinthians 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
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We rate both teams to score at 55%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Sao Paulo vs Corinthians kick off?
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Sao Paulo vs Corinthians kicks off at 00:30 UTC on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo.
