Palmeiras vs Fluminense Prediction & Betting Tips

Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Kick-off 01:30

Our prediction

Under 2.5 goals

Medium· 56%

1xBet1.74

18+ · T&Cs apply

Predicted score

1-0

Fair odds

1.79

Expected goals

1.5 - 0.9

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Match probabilities

47%Palmeiras

30%Draw

23%Fluminense

Over 2.5 goals44%

Under 2.5 goals56%

Both teams to score49%

Clean sheet either side51%

More Palmeiras vs Fluminense tips

Selection	Probability	Fair odds	Best odds
AH1 +1.5Palmeiras +1.5 (Asian Handicap)	93%	1.08	1.01
1XPalmeiras or Draw	77%	1.29	1.25
U3.5Under 3.5 goals	76%	1.32	1.22
AH2 +1.5Fluminense +1.5 (Asian Handicap)	72%	1.38	1.24
X2Fluminense or Draw	53%	1.90	1.86
BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score	51%	1.95	1.85
BTTS YesBoth teams to score	49%	2.05	1.88
1Palmeiras to win	47%	2.12	2.04
O2.5Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.27	2.13
XDraw	30%	3.33	3.48
AH1 -1.5Palmeiras -1.5 (Asian Handicap)	28%	3.63	3.35
O3.5Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.08	3.50
2Fluminense to win	23%	4.41	4.08
AH2 -1.5Fluminense -1.5 (Asian Handicap)	7%	14.03	8.40

Palmeiras vs Fluminense odds comparison

Best price in each market highlighted.

Bookmaker	1	X	2	O2.5	U2.5	BTTS	No BTTS
William Hill	1.85	3.25	4.00	-	-	1.85	1.85
1xBet	1.96	3.48	4.08	2.13	1.74	1.88	1.82
Dafabet	2.04	3.45	3.70	-	-	-	-
Bet365	2.15	3.40	3.20	2.25	1.62	1.95	1.80
Marathonbet	1.90	3.38	3.95	2.08	1.70	1.88	1.80
Betfair	1.95	3.50	3.60	2.10	1.65	-	-
Pinnacle	1.92	3.46	4.03	2.10	1.72	-	-
Betano	2.02	3.50	3.75	2.22	1.70	1.98	1.78

Palmeiras vs Fluminense preview & analysis

Match preview

Palmeiras host Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores (Semi-finals) at Nubank Parque on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with kick-off at 00:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.

Team form

Palmeiras arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Fluminense 2-1 away. Fluminense are struggling for results, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 1-2 at home. They're 2nd in the table with 8 points from 6 games.

Head to head

In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Palmeiras have won 3, Fluminense have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.

What the numbers say

Our model makes Palmeiras favourites: Palmeiras 47%, draw 30%, Fluminense 23%. We expect around 2.4 goals (1.5 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 44% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.

Our tip

This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.74, which our model rates at a 56% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Palmeiras 1-0 Fluminense.