Conference League· League Stage - 2· Alphamega Stadium
Pafos
Riga22 Oct
Pafos vs Riga Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
1.3 - 2.0
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Pafos vs Riga tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Riga +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | - |
| X2Riga or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Pafos +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 64% | 1.57 | - |
| 1XPafos or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | - |
| 2Riga to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 36% | 2.74 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Riga -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.37 | - |
| 1Pafos to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Pafos -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.80 | - |
Pafos vs Riga preview & analysis
Match preview
Pafos host Riga in the Conference League (League Stage - 2) at Alphamega Stadium on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with kick-off at 16:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Pafos arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Most recently they beat Anorthosis 3-1 away. They're 15th in the table with 0 points from 0 games. Riga arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 2. Most recently they drew with Kairat Almaty 1-1 at home. They're 36th in the table with 0 points from 0 games.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Riga narrow favourites: Pafos 23%, draw 38%, Riga 39%. We expect around 3.3 goals (1.3 - 2.0 in expected goals), with 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 64% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Pafos 1-2 Riga.
Recent form
Pafos- 11 OctAAnorthosis3-1
- 18 SeptHAEL0-2
- 13 SeptAAEK Larnaca1-0
- 7 SeptHOlympiakos0-0
- 3 SeptAOmonia Nicosia1-0
Riga- 15 OctHKairat Almaty1-1
- 10 OctATukums2-0
- 3 OctAAris2-1
- 19 SeptAFS Jelgava1-0
- 15 SeptASuper Nova1-0
Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |  FC Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Riga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pafos vs Riga: FAQ
What is the Pafos vs Riga prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Pafos 1-2 Riga.
Who is the favourite to win Pafos vs Riga?
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Riga are favourites. Our model gives Pafos a 23% chance of winning, Riga 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Pafos vs Riga?
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We rate both teams to score at 64%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Pafos vs Riga kick off?
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Pafos vs Riga kicks off at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi.
