Brasileirão· Regular Season - 33· Arena do Grêmio
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense30 Oct
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Betting Tips
Friday, 30 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
2.2 - 1.2
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Gremio +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | - |
| 1XGremio or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Atletico Paranaense +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 63% | 1.58 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 63% | 1.60 | - |
| X2Atletico Paranaense or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | - |
| 1Gremio to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 37% | 2.67 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Gremio -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 37% | 2.73 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.94 | - |
| 2Atletico Paranaense to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Atletico Paranaense -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.20 | - |
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense preview & analysis
Match preview
Gremio host Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 33) at Arena do Grêmio on Friday, 30 October 2026, with kick-off at 00:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Gremio arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Most recently they drew with Internacional 1-1 at home. They're 18th in the table with 31 points from 30 games. Atletico Paranaense arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Most recently they beat Chapecoense-sc 4-1 away. They're 3rd in the table with 53 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Gremio have won 3, Atletico Paranaense have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.7 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Gremio narrow favourites: Gremio 44%, draw 38%, Atletico Paranaense 18%. We expect around 3.4 goals (2.2 - 1.2 in expected goals), with 66% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 66% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Gremio 2-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Recent form
Gremio- 11 OctHInternacional1-1
- 7 OctARemo1-1
- 20 SeptHPalmeiras0-0
- 16 SeptABotafogo2-3
- 12 SeptHVasco DA Gama1-2
Atletico Paranaense- 12 OctAChapecoense-sc4-1
- 9 OctHAtletico-MG2-2
- 20 SeptHBahia2-1
- 12 SeptACoritiba3-3
- 6 SeptACruzeiro1-3
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense: FAQ
What is the Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Gremio 2-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Who is the favourite to win Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
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Gremio are favourites. Our model gives Gremio a 44% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
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We rate both teams to score at 63%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
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Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense kicks off at 00:30 UTC on Friday, 30 October 2026 at Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre.
