Ligue 1· Regular Season - 13· Stade de l'Aube
Estac Troyes
Lyon5 Dec
Estac Troyes vs Lyon Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 5 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.73
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
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Match probabilities
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More Estac Troyes vs Lyon tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Lyon +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.08 | - |
| X2Lyon or Draw | 83% | 1.20 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Estac Troyes +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 67% | 1.50 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| 1XEstac Troyes or Draw | 58% | 1.74 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 44% | 2.29 | - |
| 2Lyon to win | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.45 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Lyon -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 33% | 2.99 | - |
| 1Estac Troyes to win | 17% | 5.95 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Estac Troyes -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.98 | - |
Estac Troyes vs Lyon preview & analysis
Match preview
Estac Troyes host Lyon in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 13) at Stade de l'Aube on Saturday, 5 December 2026, with kick-off at 16:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Estac Troyes are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 14. Most recently they lost to Marseille 0-2 at home. They're 17th in the table with 4 points from 6 games. Lyon arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Crystal Palace 3-2 at home. They're 4th in the table with 11 points from 6 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Estac Troyes have won 0, Lyon have won 6 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 3.7 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Lyon narrow favourites: Estac Troyes 17%, draw 41%, Lyon 42%. We expect around 3.0 goals (1.1 - 1.9 in expected goals), with 58% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 58% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Estac Troyes 1-2 Lyon.
Recent form
Estac Troyes- 11 OctHMarseille0-2
- 2 OctADijon2-2
- 19 SeptAAngers0-2
- 13 SeptALille0-2
- 6 SeptHStrasbourg2-6
Lyon- 15 OctHCrystal Palace3-2
- 9 OctALens1-2
- 19 SeptHRennes4-0
- 16 SeptAAnderlecht2-1
- 12 SeptAParis FC0-0
Head to head
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 |  Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 |  Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Estac Troyes vs Lyon: FAQ
What is the Estac Troyes vs Lyon prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Estac Troyes 1-2 Lyon.
Who is the favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
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Lyon are favourites. Our model gives Estac Troyes a 17% chance of winning, Lyon 42%, and the draw 41%.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
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We rate both teams to score at 56%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Estac Troyes vs Lyon kick off?
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Estac Troyes vs Lyon kicks off at 16:00 UTC on Saturday, 5 December 2026 at Stade de l'Aube, Troyes.
