Liga MX· Apertura - 10· Estadio Banorte
Cruz Azul
Toluca3-3
FT
Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips
Saturday, 26 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Cruz Azul vs Toluca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Cruz Azul +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 84% | 1.19 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 75% | 1.33 | - |
| 1XCruz Azul or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 68% | 1.47 | - |
| X2Toluca or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | - |
| 1Cruz Azul to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.12 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Toluca to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Cruz Azul -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 25% | 4.05 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 16% | 6.23 | - |
Cruz Azul vs Toluca preview & analysis
Match preview
Cruz Azul host Toluca in the Liga MX (Apertura - 10) at Estadio Banorte on Saturday, 26 September 2026, with kick-off at 22:50 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Cruz Azul arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Most recently they lost to Monterrey 0-1 away. They're 7th in the table with 17 points from 11 games. Toluca arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Most recently they lost to Santos Laguna 2-3 at home. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Cruz Azul have won 3, Toluca have won 0 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Cruz Azul narrow favourites: Cruz Azul 38%, draw 32%, Toluca 30%. We expect around 3.5 goals (1.9 - 1.6 in expected goals), with 68% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Cruz Azul- 20 SeptAMonterrey0-1
- 17 SeptAInter Miami0-2
- 13 SeptHClub America4-3
Toluca- 21 SeptHSantos Laguna2-3
- 16 SeptAPuebla1-0
- 13 SeptHAtlas5-2
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Cruz Azul vs Toluca: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
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Cruz Azul are favourites. Our model gives Cruz Azul a 38% chance of winning, Toluca 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Cruz Azul vs Toluca kick off?
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Cruz Azul vs Toluca kicks off at 22:50 UTC on Saturday, 26 September 2026 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City.
