Europa League· League Stage - 2· Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth
Sturm Graz1-0
LIVE 56'
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams NOT to score
Predicted score
2-0
Fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
2.9 - 0.8
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Votes: 0Expert analysis
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: Both Teams to Score is the Strongest Probability Play
Analysis by Tunde Okafor
Europa League, Conference League, Turkey & Saudi ·
Bournemouth host Sturm Graz with the model making both teams to score the most likely outcome at 51%. At 1.91, this is a strong-probability selection rather than a big-value price, and the main risk is a Bournemouth clean sheet given Sturm's attacking absences.
Form & context
Bournemouth won 2-1 away at Real Sociedad in their European opener. They arrive after a 5-1 Premier League defeat at Chelsea and are still without a league win after six matches (three draws, three defeats). Rose said, according to AOL: 'We want and have to show a reaction.' Sturm drew 0-0 at home with Rennes, then won 2-0 away at Austria Wien. In their last five, Bournemouth have scored 9 and conceded 9, with over 2.5 in four and BTTS in three. Sturm have scored 7 and conceded 5, with over 2.5 in three and BTTS in two. Bournemouth sit 10th of 36 with 3 points; Sturm are 17th with 1 point.
Team news
According to AFCB.co.uk, Rose confirmed Justin Kluivert and Amine Adli are back in the squad but only for limited minutes - not a full game or 45 minutes. Alex Scott (thigh), Eli Junior Kroupi (foot), Julian Araujo and Veljko Milosavljevic are unavailable; Daniel Jebbison and Juanlu Sánchez are omitted from the Europa League squad. Sturm's official preview lists Otar Kiteishvili, Filip Rozga, Gizo Mamageishvili, Seedy Jatta, Emran Soglo, Leon Grgic and Nelson Weiper as unavailable; Albert Vallci is a doubt. Jürgen Heil is expected to return from suspension, and Sky Sport Austria reports Axel Kayombo has been added to the squad. Expected lineups are not confirmed, with Racing Post and Sportsmole offering possible XIs.
Key matchup and the numbers
The model gives Bournemouth a 74% probability, with expected goals of 2.83 for the hosts and 0.80 for Sturm. Over 2.5 is rated at 70%, and the most likely score is 2-0. Both teams to score is at 51%, just above half, making it a strong-probability pick. Sturm's Diakité scored twice against Austria Wien and is a candidate, according to Racing Post. Bournemouth have conceded in four of their last five, while Sturm have scored in three of their last five. The main risk is a Bournemouth clean sheet - the 2-0 most likely score is exactly that scenario. But with Rose demanding a reaction and Sturm needing to offer something going forward, the BTTS case is solid.
The tip
Our pick is Both teams to score at 1.91. It is not a big-value price - fair odds are 1.98 - but it is a strong-probability play based on the model's 51% rating. The honest risk is a Bournemouth clean sheet, especially with Sturm missing several attacking players. However, Bournemouth's defensive record and Sturm's 2-0 win at Austria Wien keep the BTTS outcome in play.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1The model makes both teams to score the most likely outcome at 51%.
- 2Bournemouth have BTTS in three of their last five and conceded in four of five.
- 3Sturm have scored in three of their last five and won 2-0 at Austria Wien.
Verdict
Our tip is Both teams to score at 1.91. It is a strong-probability play at 51%, though the main risk is a Bournemouth clean sheet given Sturm's attacking absences.
Sources
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Bournemouth +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 98% | 1.02 | - |
| 1XBournemouth or Draw | 93% | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| 1Bournemouth to win | 77% | 1.30 | 1.17 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.28 |
| AH1 -1.5Bournemouth -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.66 | 1.44 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | 1.86 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 49% | 2.04 | 1.95 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | 2.02 |
| AH2 +1.5Sturm Graz +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.52 | 2.59 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 28% | 3.56 | 3.20 |
| X2Sturm Graz or Draw | 23% | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| XDraw | 17% | 6.04 | 8.80 |
| 2Sturm Graz to win | 7% | 14.88 | 16.00 |
| AH2 -1.5Sturm Graz -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 2% | 46.51 | - |
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.00 | - | - | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| 1xBet | 1.17 | 8.65 | 15.50 | 1.28 | 3.20 | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| Dafabet | 1.16 | 8.80 | 16.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 8.00 | 17.00 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.16 | 8.50 | 15.50 | 1.28 | 3.20 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 8.00 | 15.00 | 1.30 | 3.30 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 8.00 | 17.00 | 1.29 | 3.40 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.76 | 16.50 | 1.32 | 3.52 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.14 | 7.72 | 13.48 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 1.18 | 8.50 | 16.50 | 1.33 | 3.35 | 1.93 | 1.82 |
Recent form
Bournemouth- 10 OctAChelsea1-5
- 20 SeptHLiverpool0-1
- 17 SeptAReal Sociedad2-1
- 12 SeptHBrentford2-2
- 8 SeptHLincoln4-0
Sturm Graz- 10 OctAAustria Vienna2-0
- 2 OctHFloridsdorfer AC3-1
- 20 SeptARed Bull Salzburg0-3
- 16 SeptHRennes0-0
- 13 SeptHLask Linz2-1
Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 8 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 |  Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 |  Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |  Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: FAQ
What is the Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams NOT to score at odds of 1.85. Our predicted score is Bournemouth 2-0 Sturm Graz.
Who is the favourite to win Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
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Bournemouth are favourites. Our model gives Bournemouth a 77% chance of winning, Sturm Graz 7%, and the draw 17%.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
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We rate both teams to score at 49%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz kick off?
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Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.
