Brasileirão· Regular Season - 38· Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia
Atletico-MG2 Dec
Bahia vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 2 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.0
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Bahia vs Atletico-MG tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Bahia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XBahia or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Atletico-MG +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 69% | 1.44 | - |
| X2Atletico-MG or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 49% | 2.05 | - |
| 1Bahia to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Bahia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 31% | 3.27 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | - |
| 2Atletico-MG to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Atletico-MG -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.61 | - |
Bahia vs Atletico-MG preview & analysis
Match preview
Bahia host Atletico-MG in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 38) at Arena Fonte Nova on Wednesday, 2 December 2026, with kick-off at 21:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Bahia arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Most recently they beat Mirassol 1-0 at home. They're 5th in the table with 49 points from 30 games. Atletico-MG arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Most recently they beat Atletico Torque 3-0 at home. They're 7th in the table with 47 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Bahia have won 3, Atletico-MG have won 1 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 3.0 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Bahia narrow favourites: Bahia 44%, draw 38%, Atletico-MG 18%. We expect around 2.7 goals (1.7 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 51% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score, which our model rates at a 51% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Bahia 1-0 Atletico-MG.
Recent form
Bahia- 11 OctHMirassol1-0
- 9 OctAPalmeiras0-1
- 20 SeptAAtletico Paranaense1-2
- 15 SeptHRemo2-1
- 5 SeptARB Bragantino3-2
Atletico-MG- 14 OctHAtletico Torque3-0
- 11 OctHSantos2-1
- 9 OctAAtletico Paranaense2-2
- 3 OctHRB Bragantino1-0
- 19 SeptHChapecoense-sc1-1
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Bahia vs Atletico-MG: FAQ
What is the Bahia vs Atletico-MG prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score. Our predicted score is Bahia 1-0 Atletico-MG.
Who is the favourite to win Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
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Bahia are favourites. Our model gives Bahia a 44% chance of winning, Atletico-MG 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
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We rate both teams to score at 51%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Bahia vs Atletico-MG kick off?
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Bahia vs Atletico-MG kicks off at 21:00 UTC on Wednesday, 2 December 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador.
