Brasileirão· Regular Season - 38· Arena da Baixada
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo2 Dec
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 2 December 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.5
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Atletico Paranaense +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 84% | 1.18 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Sao Paulo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 76% | 1.31 | - |
| 1XAtletico Paranaense or Draw | 70% | 1.44 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | - |
| X2Sao Paulo or Draw | 62% | 1.61 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | - |
| 1Atletico Paranaense to win | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 35% | 2.85 | - |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | - |
| 2Sao Paulo to win | 30% | 3.29 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Atletico Paranaense -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 24% | 4.22 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Sao Paulo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 16% | 6.45 | - |
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo preview & analysis
Match preview
Atletico Paranaense host Sao Paulo in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 38) at Arena da Baixada on Wednesday, 2 December 2026, with kick-off at 21:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Atletico Paranaense arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Most recently they beat Chapecoense-sc 4-1 away. They're 3rd in the table with 53 points from 30 games. Sao Paulo arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Most recently they beat Vitoria 2-1 at home. They're 10th in the table with 39 points from 30 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 3 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Atletico Paranaense narrow favourites: Atletico Paranaense 38%, draw 32%, Sao Paulo 30%. We expect around 3.3 goals (1.8 - 1.5 in expected goals), with 64% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score, which our model rates at a 65% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Sao Paulo.
Recent form
Atletico Paranaense- 12 OctAChapecoense-sc4-1
- 9 OctHAtletico-MG2-2
- 20 SeptHBahia2-1
- 12 SeptACoritiba3-3
- 6 SeptACruzeiro1-3
Sao Paulo- 11 OctHVitoria2-1
- 8 OctACruzeiro0-2
- 3 OctHSantos1-2
- 20 SeptHInternacional1-0
- 16 SeptHBoca Juniors1-1
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo: FAQ
What is the Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score. Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Sao Paulo.
Who is the favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
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Atletico Paranaense are favourites. Our model gives Atletico Paranaense a 38% chance of winning, Sao Paulo 30%, and the draw 32%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
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We rate both teams to score at 65%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo kick off?
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Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo kicks off at 21:00 UTC on Wednesday, 2 December 2026 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.
