Brasileirão· Regular Season - 37· MRV Arena
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama29 Nov
Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 29 November 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Under 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.93
Expected goals
1.7 - 0.9
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Atletico-MG +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XAtletico-MG or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Vasco DA Gama +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | - |
| X2Vasco DA Gama or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 51% | 1.97 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 49% | 2.03 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 | - |
| 1Atletico-MG to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Atletico-MG -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.37 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.79 | - |
| 2Vasco DA Gama to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Vasco DA Gama -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.91 | - |
Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama preview & analysis
Match preview
Atletico-MG host Vasco DA Gama in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 37) at MRV Arena on Sunday, 29 November 2026, with kick-off at 21:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Atletico-MG arrive in mixed form, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Most recently they beat Atletico Torque 3-0 at home. They're 7th in the table with 47 points from 30 games. Vasco DA Gama arrive in superb form, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 1. Most recently they beat Boca Juniors 1-0 away. They're 14th in the table with 35 points from 29 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Atletico-MG have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 1 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Atletico-MG narrow favourites: Atletico-MG 44%, draw 38%, Vasco DA Gama 18%. We expect around 2.6 goals (1.7 - 0.9 in expected goals), with 48% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.
Our tip
This shapes up as a tight, low-event game, and goals could be at a premium. Our pick is Under 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 52% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Atletico-MG 1-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Recent form
Atletico-MG- 14 OctHAtletico Torque3-0
- 11 OctHSantos2-1
- 9 OctAAtletico Paranaense2-2
- 3 OctHRB Bragantino1-0
- 19 SeptHChapecoense-sc1-1
Vasco DA Gama- 14 OctABoca Juniors1-0
- 10 OctHRemo0-0
- 8 OctABotafogo2-1
- 20 SeptHCoritiba5-0
- 15 SeptHSanta Fe2-0
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama: FAQ
What is the Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?
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Our tip is Under 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who is the favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama?
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Atletico-MG are favourites. Our model gives Atletico-MG a 44% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama?
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We rate both teams to score at 49%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
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Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama kicks off at 21:00 UTC on Sunday, 29 November 2026 at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte.
