Conference League· League Stage - 2· Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax
Atalanta22 Oct
Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction & Betting Tips
Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Over 2.5 goals
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
1.3 - 2.0
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Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Ajax vs Atalanta tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Atalanta +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | - |
| X2Atalanta or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Ajax +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 64% | 1.57 | - |
| 1XAjax or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | - |
| 2Atalanta to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 36% | 2.74 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Atalanta -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.37 | - |
| 1Ajax to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Ajax -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.80 | - |
Ajax vs Atalanta preview & analysis
Match preview
Ajax host Atalanta in the Conference League (League Stage - 2) at Johan Cruijff Arena on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Ajax arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 away. They're 25th in the table with 0 points from 1 game. Atalanta are struggling for results, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Most recently they beat Pafos 3-1 at home. They're 4th in the table with 3 points from 1 game.
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings between these sides, Ajax have won 0, Atalanta have won 1 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Atalanta narrow favourites: Ajax 23%, draw 38%, Atalanta 39%. We expect around 3.3 goals (1.3 - 2.0 in expected goals), with 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both teams' recent games have been open, and our goals model expects this one to follow suit. Our pick is Over 2.5 goals, which our model rates at a 64% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Ajax 1-2 Atalanta.
Recent form
Ajax- 15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split1-2
- 10 OctHNEC Nijmegen1-1
- 19 SeptHExcelsior2-2
- 15 SeptHWillem II5-1
- 12 SeptAFortuna Sittard5-1
Atalanta- 15 OctHPafos3-1
- 12 OctHVenezia3-1
- 20 SeptAJuventus0-2
- 12 SeptHCagliari1-2
- 5 SeptAAS Roma1-2
Head to head
Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 |  FC Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 |  Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  St. Truiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 |  Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Ajax vs Atalanta: FAQ
What is the Ajax vs Atalanta prediction?
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Our tip is Over 2.5 goals. Our predicted score is Ajax 1-2 Atalanta.
Who is the favourite to win Ajax vs Atalanta?
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Atalanta are favourites. Our model gives Ajax a 23% chance of winning, Atalanta 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Atalanta?
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We rate both teams to score at 64%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Ajax vs Atalanta kick off?
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Ajax vs Atalanta kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
