Nations League· League A - 2· Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
Türkiye
Italy1-4
FT
Türkiye vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips
Monday, 28 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Türkiye vs Italy tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Italy +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 90% | 1.12 | - |
| X2Italy or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Türkiye +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 74% | 1.35 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | - |
| 1XTürkiye or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 55% | 1.81 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 45% | 2.23 | - |
| 2Italy to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.25 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Italy -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 26% | 3.82 | - |
| 1Türkiye to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Türkiye -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 10% | 9.66 | - |
Türkiye vs Italy preview & analysis
Match preview
Türkiye host Italy in the Nations League (League A - 2) at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu on Monday, 28 September 2026, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Türkiye arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Most recently they lost to France 0-1 at home. They're 4th in the table with 0 points from 4 games. Italy arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 2. Most recently they lost to Belgium 0-2 at home. They're 2nd in the table with 7 points from 4 games.
Head to head
In the last 3 meetings between these sides, Türkiye have won 0, Italy have won 2 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.7 goals, and both teams scored in 1 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Italy narrow favourites: Türkiye 23%, draw 38%, Italy 39%. We expect around 2.8 goals (1.1 - 1.7 in expected goals), with 53% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Türkiye- 25 SeptHFrance0-1
- 26 JunHUSA3-2
- 20 JunHParaguay0-1
Italy- 25 SeptHBelgium0-2
- 7 JunAGreece1-0
- 3 JunALuxembourg1-0
Head to head
Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Türkiye vs Italy: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Türkiye vs Italy?
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Italy are favourites. Our model gives Türkiye a 23% chance of winning, Italy 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Türkiye vs Italy?
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We rate both teams to score at 55%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Türkiye vs Italy kick off?
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Türkiye vs Italy kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Monday, 28 September 2026 at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa.
