Nations League· League B - 2· Strawberry Arena
Sweden
Poland3-1
FT
Sweden vs Poland Prediction & Betting Tips
Monday, 28 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Sweden vs Poland tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Sweden +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XSweden or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Poland +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.46 | - |
| X2Poland or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 53% | 1.89 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 47% | 2.12 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | - |
| 1Sweden to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Sweden -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.17 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.25 | - |
| 2Poland to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Poland -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.34 | - |
Sweden vs Poland preview & analysis
Match preview
Sweden host Poland in the Nations League (League B - 2) at Strawberry Arena on Monday, 28 September 2026, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Sweden arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Most recently they beat Romania 2-1 at home. They're 1st in the table with 10 points from 4 games. Poland arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 4. Most recently they drew with Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-0 at home. They're 3rd in the table with 4 points from 4 games.
Head to head
In the last 3 meetings between these sides, Sweden have won 2, Poland have won 1 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 4.0 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Sweden narrow favourites: Sweden 44%, draw 38%, Poland 18%. We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 53% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Sweden- 25 SeptHRomania2-1
- 30 JunAFrance0-3
- 26 JunAJapan1-1
Poland- 25 SeptHBosnia & Herzegovina0-0
- 3 JunHNigeria2-2
- 31 MayHUkraine0-2
Head to head
Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Sweden vs Poland: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Sweden vs Poland?
+
Sweden are favourites. Our model gives Sweden a 44% chance of winning, Poland 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Poland?
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We rate both teams to score at 53%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Sweden vs Poland kick off?
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Sweden vs Poland kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Monday, 28 September 2026 at Strawberry Arena, Solna.
