Liga MX· Apertura - 12· Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
Atletico San Luis18 Oct
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Both teams to score
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-0
Fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
2.7 - 0.8
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Match probabilities
More Toluca vs Atletico San Luis tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 98% | 1.02 | - |
| 1XToluca or Draw | 88% | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | 1.35 |
| 1Toluca to win | 66% | 1.51 | 1.36 |
| AH1 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 57% | 1.74 | 1.86 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.77 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 1.97 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 43% | 2.33 | 2.25 |
| AH2 +1.5Atletico San Luis +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 43% | 2.34 | 1.85 |
| X2Atletico San Luis or Draw | 34% | 2.96 | 3.12 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.03 | 2.74 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.61 | 5.60 |
| 2Atletico San Luis to win | 12% | 8.26 | 7.55 |
| AH2 -1.5Atletico San Luis -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 2% | 46.05 | - |
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.80 | 7.00 | - | - | 1.57 | 2.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 5.30 | 7.55 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.61 | 2.18 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 5.60 | 7.40 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 5.30 | 7.50 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.61 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.67 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.25 | 8.00 | 1.39 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | 5.69 | 8.14 | 1.39 | 2.96 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.76 | 5.90 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 1.37 | 5.20 | 7.30 | 1.44 | 2.87 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis preview & analysis
Match preview
Toluca host Atletico San Luis in the Liga MX (Apertura - 12) at Estadio Nemesio Diez on Sunday, 18 October 2026, with kick-off at 01:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Toluca are struggling for results, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL 2-3 away. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games. Atletico San Luis are struggling for results, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Most recently they lost to Santos Laguna 1-2 at home. They're 15th in the table with 12 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Toluca have won 5, Atletico San Luis have won 0 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 3.3 goals, and both teams scored in 5 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca clear favourites: Toluca 66%, draw 22%, Atletico San Luis 12%. We expect around 3.5 goals (2.7 - 0.8 in expected goals), with 67% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Both attacks are firing and neither defence has been keeping clean sheets. We expect goals at both ends. Our pick is Both teams to score at 1.61, which our model rates at a 57% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Toluca 2-0 Atletico San Luis.
Recent form
Toluca- 10 OctATigres UANL2-3
- 4 OctAMonterrey1-2
- 26 SeptACruz Azul3-3
- 21 SeptHSantos Laguna2-3
- 16 SeptAPuebla1-0
Atletico San Luis- 12 OctHSantos Laguna1-2
- 27 SeptAU.N.A.M. - Pumas3-2
- 20 SeptHNecaxa3-1
- 15 SeptALeon0-2
- 6 SeptHGuadalajara Chivas0-3
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis: FAQ
What is the Toluca vs Atletico San Luis prediction?
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Our tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.61. Our predicted score is Toluca 2-0 Atletico San Luis.
Who is the favourite to win Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
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Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Toluca a 66% chance of winning, Atletico San Luis 12%, and the draw 22%.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
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We rate both teams to score at 57%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Toluca vs Atletico San Luis kick off?
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Toluca vs Atletico San Luis kicks off at 01:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
