Championship· Semi-finals· St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton
Middlesbrough2-1
FT
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Betting Tips
Tuesday, 12 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Southampton vs Middlesbrough tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Middlesbrough +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.12 | - |
| X2Middlesbrough or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Southampton +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 72% | 1.38 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| 1XSouthampton or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 59% | 1.70 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 41% | 2.42 | - |
| 2Middlesbrough to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Middlesbrough -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 28% | 3.62 | - |
| 1Southampton to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Southampton -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 9.27 | - |
Southampton vs Middlesbrough preview & analysis
Match preview
Southampton host Middlesbrough in the Championship (Semi-finals) at St. Mary's Stadium on Tuesday, 12 May 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Southampton have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 2 and 3 ended level. Those games averaged 2.3 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Middlesbrough narrow favourites: Southampton 23%, draw 38%, Middlesbrough 39%. We expect around 3.0 goals (1.2 - 1.8 in expected goals), with 58% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | +52 | 95 |
| 2 |  Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | +33 | 84 |
| 3 |  Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | +15 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | +26 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | +25 | 80 |
| 6 |  Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | +4 | 73 |
| 7 |  Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | +4 | 71 |
Southampton vs Middlesbrough: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
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Middlesbrough are favourites. Our model gives Southampton a 23% chance of winning, Middlesbrough 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
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We rate both teams to score at 59%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Southampton vs Middlesbrough kick off?
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Southampton vs Middlesbrough kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Tuesday, 12 May 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton.
