Brasileirão· Regular Season - 14· Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques
Sao Paulo
Bahia2-2
FT
Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 3 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Sao Paulo vs Bahia tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5Sao Paulo +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | - |
| 1XSao Paulo or Draw | 82% | 1.23 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | - |
| AH2 +1.5Bahia +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 68% | 1.46 | - |
| X2Bahia or Draw | 56% | 1.78 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 53% | 1.89 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 47% | 2.12 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | - |
| 1Sao Paulo to win | 44% | 2.28 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Sao Paulo -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 32% | 3.17 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.25 | - |
| 2Bahia to win | 18% | 5.43 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Bahia -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.34 | - |
Sao Paulo vs Bahia preview & analysis
Match preview
Sao Paulo host Bahia in the Brasileirão (Regular Season - 14) at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques on Sunday, 3 May 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Sao Paulo have won 4, Bahia have won 1 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.2 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Sao Paulo narrow favourites: Sao Paulo 44%, draw 38%, Bahia 18%. We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 - 1.0 in expected goals), with 53% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Brasileirão table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Sao Paulo vs Bahia: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
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Sao Paulo are favourites. Our model gives Sao Paulo a 44% chance of winning, Bahia 18%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
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We rate both teams to score at 53%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does Sao Paulo vs Bahia kick off?
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Sao Paulo vs Bahia kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Sunday, 3 May 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista.
