Bundesliga· Regular Season - 32· Millerntor-Stadion
FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 051-2
FT
FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 3 May 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
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Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
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Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.12 | - |
| X2FSV Mainz 05 or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5FC St. Pauli +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 72% | 1.38 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | - |
| 1XFC St. Pauli or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 59% | 1.70 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 41% | 2.42 | - |
| 2FSV Mainz 05 to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 | - |
| AH2 -1.5FSV Mainz 05 -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 28% | 3.62 | - |
| 1FC St. Pauli to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5FC St. Pauli -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 9.27 | - |
FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 preview & analysis
Match preview
FC St. Pauli host FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 32) at Millerntor-Stadion on Sunday, 3 May 2026, with kick-off at 13:30 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Head to head
In the last 5 meetings between these sides, FC St. Pauli have won 0, FSV Mainz 05 have won 4 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 2.8 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 narrow favourites: FC St. Pauli 23%, draw 38%, FSV Mainz 05 39%. We expect around 3.0 goals (1.2 - 1.8 in expected goals), with 58% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Head to head
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 | 89 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | +36 | 73 |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 | 65 |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | +22 | 62 |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | +13 | 61 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | +21 | 59 |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | -4 | 44 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -16 | 43 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -14 | 39 |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 | 38 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -23 | 32 |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -24 | 29 |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
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FSV Mainz 05 are favourites. Our model gives FC St. Pauli a 23% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
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We rate both teams to score at 59%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
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FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 kicks off at 13:30 UTC on Sunday, 3 May 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg.
