Championship· Regular Season - 10· Loftus Road
QPR
Derby4-1
FT
QPR vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
QPR to win
Predicted score
1-0
Fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.9 - 0.8
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Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
More QPR vs Derby tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5QPR +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 95% | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| 1XQPR or Draw | 82% | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 | 1.30 |
| AH2 +1.5Derby +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 62% | 1.62 | 1.35 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 52% | 1.93 | 1.79 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 | 1.83 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.05 | 1.91 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 48% | 2.07 | 1.95 |
| X2Derby or Draw | 45% | 2.21 | 2.20 |
| AH1 -1.5QPR -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 38% | 2.62 | 2.75 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.28 | 2.97 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | 4.00 |
| 2Derby to win | 18% | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| AH2 -1.5Derby -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 5% | 21.99 | 9.40 |
QPR vs Derby odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 | - | - | 1.75 | 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.85 | 4.80 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 4.00 | 5.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.75 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.85 | 4.85 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.79 | 1.89 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.98 | 5.01 | 1.89 | 2.00 | - | - |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.66 | 4.79 | 1.83 | 2.01 | - | - |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.05 | 5.10 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
QPR vs Derby preview & analysis
Match preview
QPR host Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 10) at Loftus Road on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
QPR arrive in mixed form, with 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Most recently they drew with West Ham 1-1 away. They're 8th in the table with 14 points from 9 games. Derby are struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Most recently they drew with Wrexham 1-1 at home. They're 23rd in the table with 6 points from 9 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, QPR have won 3, Derby have won 3 and 0 ended level. Those games averaged 2.7 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes QPR favourites: QPR 55%, draw 27%, Derby 18%. We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 - 0.8 in expected goals), with 51% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Our tip
QPR have the stronger profile here and home advantage tips it further their way. Our pick is QPR to win at 1.72, which our model rates at a 55% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is QPR 1-0 Derby.
Recent form
QPR- 9 OctAWest Ham1-1
- 19 SeptHPreston2-2
- 12 SeptAWest Brom1-1
- 9 SeptACharlton0-0
- 5 SeptHMiddlesbrough0-1
Derby- 10 OctHWrexham1-1
- 19 SeptABurnley1-1
- 12 SeptHBirmingham1-2
- 9 SeptHWest Brom0-1
- 5 SeptAWest Ham0-3
Head to head
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
QPR vs Derby: FAQ
What is the QPR vs Derby prediction?
+
Our tip is QPR to win at odds of 1.72. Our predicted score is QPR 1-0 Derby.
Who is the favourite to win QPR vs Derby?
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QPR are favourites. Our model gives QPR a 55% chance of winning, Derby 18%, and the draw 27%.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
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We rate both teams to score at 52%, so it's close to a coin flip.
When does QPR vs Derby kick off?
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QPR vs Derby kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at Loftus Road, London.
