Liga MX· Apertura - 7· Estadio Cuauhtémoc
Puebla
Toluca0-1
FT
Puebla vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · Kick-off
No tip was published for this match before kick-off.
Add to My Teams
Pick the teams and leagues you care about. We save them on this device, no sign-up needed.
Fan vote
Voting closed at kick-offWho will win?
Votes: 0How many goals?
Votes: 0Match probabilities
Bookmaker prices aren't available yet. These figures come from our stats model and will update when markets open.
More Puebla vs Toluca tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Toluca +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 89% | 1.13 | - |
| X2Toluca or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | - |
| AH1 +1.5Puebla +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 70% | 1.42 | - |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | - |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 64% | 1.57 | - |
| 1XPuebla or Draw | 61% | 1.65 | - |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | - |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | - |
| 2Toluca to win | 39% | 2.54 | - |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.65 | - |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 36% | 2.74 | - |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 | - |
| AH2 -1.5Toluca -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 30% | 3.37 | - |
| 1Puebla to win | 23% | 4.39 | - |
| AH1 -1.5Puebla -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 11% | 8.80 | - |
Puebla vs Toluca preview & analysis
Match preview
Puebla host Toluca in the Liga MX (Apertura - 7) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc on Wednesday, 16 September 2026, with kick-off at 01:00 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Puebla arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 2. Most recently they beat Necaxa 1-0 away. They're 9th in the table with 15 points from 11 games. Toluca arrive in mixed form, with 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 1 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Most recently they beat Atlas 5-2 at home. They're 2nd in the table with 20 points from 11 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Puebla have won 1, Toluca have won 3 and 2 ended level. Those games averaged 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Toluca narrow favourites: Puebla 23%, draw 38%, Toluca 39%. We expect around 3.3 goals (1.3 - 2.0 in expected goals), with 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Recent form
Puebla- 12 SeptANecaxa1-0
- 30 AugAClub America0-2
Toluca- 13 SeptHAtlas5-2
Head to head
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Club Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Puebla vs Toluca: FAQ
Who is the favourite to win Puebla vs Toluca?
+
Toluca are favourites. Our model gives Puebla a 23% chance of winning, Toluca 39%, and the draw 38%.
Will both teams score in Puebla vs Toluca?
+
We rate both teams to score at 64%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Puebla vs Toluca kick off?
+
Puebla vs Toluca kicks off at 01:00 UTC on Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla.
