Eredivisie· Regular Season - 9· Stadion de Goffert
NEC Nijmegen
Fortuna Sittard18 Oct
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
NEC Nijmegen to win
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
2-1
Fair odds
1.98
Expected goals
2.2 - 1.2
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Expert analysis
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: Home win the most likely outcome
Analysis by Lena Vogel
Bundesliga, Ligue 1 & European leagues ·
NEC's recent results look bleak, but the underlying numbers point to a home victory at Stadion de Goffert. The model makes NEC a 51% pick to win, and that is our call at odds of 1.61.
Form and context
League position flatters Fortuna, but the expected goals picture tells a different story.
- NEC sit 11th with 9 points, Fortuna are 7th with 14 points after eight rounds.
- NEC are winless in five: three straight 1-1 draws then defeats to Juventus and Cambuur.
- Fortuna have won three of their last five but conceded 9 goals in that run.
- The model projects 2.29 expected goals for NEC against 1.22 for Fortuna, with 2-1 the most likely score.
- NEC's draws came against Ajax and Go Ahead Eagles, credible opposition that hints at more resilience than results show.
Team news
With kickoff two days away, team news remains provisional, and NEC carry the heavier injury list.
- Dušan Tadić is out with a suspected calf injury, according to voetbalprimeur.nl, with his recovery timeline uncertain.
- Manager Dick Schreuder said, according to voetbalprimeur.nl, he did not expect Tadić to be available for this match.
- Sandler, Nuytinck and Mor are also missing; Tobias Storm has recovered and is available again.
- Fortuna are without Bayram, Marquez and Oukili, while Dahlhaus is doubtful after missing the Twente draw.
- No confirmed lineups have been published by either club yet.
Key matchup
History says goals when these sides meet, and the numbers back an open game.
- The last four meetings produced 4-1, 3-2, 2-3 and 3-0 scorelines, with wins split between the clubs.
- The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 65%.
- Fortuna's away wins at Genk, Willem II and ADO show they travel well, a genuine threat here.
- NEC played Levski Sofia three days before this match, so recovery and rotation are factors to monitor.
The numbers
This is a strong-probability pick rather than a big price, and the value sits with the favourite.
- The model gives NEC a 51% win probability, against 25% for the draw and 23% for Fortuna.
- Best available odds for the home win are 1.61, while fair odds are assessed at 1.95.
- The main risk is NEC's finishing: just 3 goals in their last five and now without Tadić.
- Fortuna's recent head-to-head edge, winning the last two meetings 3-2, is the other live danger.
Three reasons we like this tip
- 1Model rates NEC at 51% to win, the single most likely outcome.
- 2Expected goals strongly favour NEC at 2.29 to 1.22 despite recent form.
- 3Fair odds of 1.95 against a best price of 1.61 support the home side.
Verdict
Our tip is NEC Nijmegen to win at best odds of 1.61, the most likely outcome in a match the model expects to produce goals. Respect Fortuna's away form, but the numbers point firmly to the hosts.
Sources
We use AI tools to help summarise the data and research behind this preview. Every pick, probability and number comes from OhMyTip's own prediction models and the sources listed below.
Match probabilities
More NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH1 +1.5NEC Nijmegen +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 92% | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| 1XNEC Nijmegen or Draw | 76% | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.34 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 65% | 1.54 | 1.44 |
| AH2 +1.5Fortuna Sittard +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 62% | 1.62 | 1.55 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 | 1.86 |
| X2Fortuna Sittard or Draw | 49% | 2.02 | 2.26 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.07 | 1.98 |
| AH1 -1.5NEC Nijmegen -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 38% | 2.62 | 2.53 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 35% | 2.86 | 2.66 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.09 | 2.78 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | 4.43 |
| 2Fortuna Sittard to win | 24% | 4.15 | 4.74 |
| AH2 -1.5Fortuna Sittard -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 8% | 12.64 | 9.00 |
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.40 | - | - | 1.44 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.43 | 4.74 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.42 | 2.66 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.33 | 4.75 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.62 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.30 | 4.60 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.42 | 2.61 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.31 | 4.70 | 1.40 | 2.96 | - | - |
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen- 15 OctHLevski Sofia1-1
- 10 OctAAjax1-1
- 20 SeptHGO Ahead Eagles1-1
- 17 SeptAJuventus0-5
- 12 SeptACambuur0-3
Fortuna Sittard- 10 OctHTwente1-1
- 3 OctAGenk2-1
- 19 SeptAWillem II1-0
- 12 SeptHAjax1-5
- 6 SeptAADO Den Haag3-2
Head to head
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: FAQ
What is the NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard prediction?
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Our tip is NEC Nijmegen to win at odds of 1.65. Our predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who is the favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
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NEC Nijmegen are favourites. Our model gives NEC Nijmegen a 51% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard 24%, and the draw 25%.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
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We rate both teams to score at 65%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
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NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kicks off at 18:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen.
