Eredivisie· Regular Season - 9· Euroborg
Groningen
Ajax18 Oct
Groningen vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips
Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kick-off
Our prediction
Ajax to win
18+ · T&Cs apply
Predicted score
1-2
Fair odds
1.95
Expected goals
1.2 - 2.4
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Match probabilities
More Groningen vs Ajax tips
| Selection | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AH2 +1.5Ajax +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 93% | 1.08 | 1.04 |
| X2Ajax or Draw | 77% | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| O2.5Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | 1.31 |
| BTTS YesBoth teams to score | 68% | 1.47 | 1.36 |
| AH1 +1.5Groningen +1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 60% | 1.68 | 1.35 |
| U3.5Under 3.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | 1.91 |
| O3.5Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 2.02 | 1.93 |
| 1XGroningen or Draw | 49% | 2.05 | 2.00 |
| AH2 -1.5Ajax -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 40% | 2.47 | 2.75 |
| BTTS NoBoth teams NOT to score | 32% | 3.11 | 2.94 |
| U2.5Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.27 | 2.92 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.85 | 4.23 |
| 1Groningen to win | 23% | 4.39 | 3.87 |
| AH1 -1.5Groningen -1.5 (Asian Handicap) | 7% | 13.65 | 7.10 |
Groningen vs Ajax odds comparison
Best price in each market highlighted.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 | BTTS | No BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.75 | - | - | 1.36 | 2.80 |
| 1xBet | 3.87 | 4.23 | 1.83 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.35 | 2.94 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.77 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.35 | 2.88 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 4.33 | 1.73 | - | - | - | - |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.72 | 4.39 | 1.79 | 1.36 | 3.13 | - | - |
| SBO | 3.28 | 3.64 | 1.76 | - | - | - | - |
| Betano | 3.75 | 4.25 | 1.82 | 1.38 | 3.10 | 1.38 | 2.87 |
Groningen vs Ajax preview & analysis
Match preview
Groningen host Ajax in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 9) at Euroborg on Sunday, 18 October 2026, with kick-off at 14:45 UTC. Here's our full prediction, built from bookmaker prices, current form and head-to-head data.
Team form
Groningen arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Most recently they beat Excelsior 5-1 away. They're 6th in the table with 14 points from 8 games. Ajax arrive in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Most recently they lost to HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 away. They're 5th in the table with 15 points from 8 games.
Head to head
In the last 6 meetings between these sides, Groningen have won 1, Ajax have won 4 and 1 ended level. Those games averaged 3.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of them.
What the numbers say
Our model makes Ajax favourites: Groningen 23%, draw 26%, Ajax 51%. We expect around 3.6 goals (1.2 - 2.4 in expected goals), with 69% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Our tip
Ajax are the better side on the numbers and should have enough to win on the road. Our pick is Ajax to win at 1.85, which our model rates at a 51% chance. For a bigger price, the most likely correct score is Groningen 1-2 Ajax.
Recent form
Groningen- 11 OctAExcelsior5-1
- 18 SeptHPEC Zwolle3-0
- 12 SeptAGO Ahead Eagles1-1
- 6 SeptHTwente2-2
- 28 AugHFortuna Sittard2-3
Ajax- 15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split1-2
- 10 OctHNEC Nijmegen1-1
- 19 SeptHExcelsior2-2
- 15 SeptHWillem II5-1
- 12 SeptAFortuna Sittard5-1
Head to head
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Groningen vs Ajax: FAQ
What is the Groningen vs Ajax prediction?
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Our tip is Ajax to win at odds of 1.85. Our predicted score is Groningen 1-2 Ajax.
Who is the favourite to win Groningen vs Ajax?
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Ajax are favourites. Our model gives Groningen a 23% chance of winning, Ajax 51%, and the draw 26%.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Ajax?
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We rate both teams to score at 68%, so BTTS Yes is likely.
When does Groningen vs Ajax kick off?
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Groningen vs Ajax kicks off at 14:45 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Euroborg, Groningen.
